Tennis · Challenger Taipei · 08/11, 07:30
Prediction: Yosuke Watanuki vs Jan Kumstat
Team pages: Yosuke Watanuki · Jan Kumstat
Prediction summary
Winner
Yosuke Watanuki
Jan Kumstat
Estimated games
22.1
Recent form · 10 last
Yosuke Watanuki
10-0 (W-L)
Jan Kumstat
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Yosuke Watanuki 1613 · Jan Kumstat 1539
| Yosuke Watanuki | Jan Kumstat | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 40% |
| Market | 61% | 39% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Yosuke Watanuki (rating 1613 vs 1539).
- Yosuke Watanuki dominates on serve: 9.9 aces and 47.6% break avg.
- Yosuke Watanuki is in better form: 90% recent wins.
Statistics
| Yosuke Watanuki | Jan Kumstat | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 90% (10) | 63% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.9-0.3 | 1.3-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.2-7.6 | 11.9-12.8 |
| Aces | 9.9 | 9.9 |
| Double faults | 1.3 | 2.4 |
| 1st serve % | 82.5% | 74.6% |
| Break % | 47.6% | 28.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Yosuke Watanuki
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11 | Coleman Wong Challenger Taipei · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 06/11 | Alexandre Muller Challenger Taipei · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 05/11 | Masamichi Imamura Challenger Taipei · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 03/11 | Lloyd Harris Challenger Taipei · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 02/11 | Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong Challenger Taipei · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 01/11 | Dominik Palan Challenger Taipei · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 16/10 | Shintaro Mochizuki Challenger Jinan · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 15/10 | Marin Cilic Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 14/10 | Andre Ilagan Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 13/10 | Kaito Uesugi Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Jan Kumstat
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11 | Yuta Shimizu Challenger Taipei · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 06/11 | Harold Mayot Challenger Taipei · Hard |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 04/11 | Billy Harris Challenger Taipei · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 02/11 | Joel Schwaerzler Challenger Taipei · Hard |
2-1 | 17-17 | W |
| 27/10 | Sho Shimabukuro Challenger Seoul · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 18/10 | Michael Mmoh ATP Lyon · Hard |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 15/10 | Jacob Fearnley Challenger Olbia · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 13/10 | Edas Butvilas Challenger Olbia · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 31/08 | Juan Pablo Varillas Challenger Como · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 22/08 | Chun Hsin Tseng Challenger Prague · Clay |
2-1 | 17-10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Yosuke Watanuki vs Jan Kumstat?
Our model gives 61% to Yosuke Watanuki, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.