Tennis · Challenger Costa do Sauipe · 04/11, 22:30
Prediction: Igor Marcondes vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Team pages: Igor Marcondes · Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Prediction summary
Winner
Igor Marcondes
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Estimated games
23
Recent form · 10 last
Igor Marcondes
3-7 (W-L)
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Igor Marcondes 1516 · Camilo Ugo Carabelli 1458
| Igor Marcondes | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 29% | 71% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Igor Marcondes (rating 1516 vs 1458).
Statistics
| Igor Marcondes | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 56% (9) | 25% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.2 | 0.9-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.2-12 | 11.2-12.7 |
| Aces | 4.9 | 4.8 |
| Double faults | 2.4 | 3.3 |
| 1st serve % | 66.3% | 70.9% |
| Break % | 59.1% | 33.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Igor Marcondes
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11 | Luis Felipe Miguel Challenger Costa do Sauipe · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 22/10 | Erik Arutiunian Challenger Fort Worth · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 20/10 | Sebastian Gorzny Challenger Fort Worth · Hard |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 29/09 | Andrew Fenty Challenger Columbus · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 27/09 | Nishesh Basavareddy Challenger San Diego · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 26/09 | Timo Legout Challenger San Diego · Hard |
2-1 | 20-17 | W |
| 25/09 | Federico Agustin Gomez Challenger San Diego · Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 23/09 | Patrick Maloney Challenger San Diego · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 22/09 | Ozan Baris Challenger San Diego · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 15/09 | Nishesh Basavareddy Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11 | Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Challenger Costa do Sauipe · Clay |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 27/10 | Federico Coria Challenger Guayaquil · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 10/10 | Felix Auger Aliassime ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 08/10 | Ilia Simakin ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 28/09 | Rinky Hijikata ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 24/09 | Federico Cina ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 01/09 | Jan-Lennard Struff US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 10-18 | L |
| 20/08 | Nicolas Mejia Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 13/08 | Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 04/08 | Cameron Norrie ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Igor Marcondes vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli?
Our model gives 58% to Camilo Ugo Carabelli, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.