Tennis · Challenger Taipei · 04/11, 08:50
Prediction: Yuta Shimizu vs August Holmgren
Team pages: Yuta Shimizu · August Holmgren
Prediction summary
Winner
Yuta Shimizu
August Holmgren
Estimated games
22.7
Recent form · 10 last
Yuta Shimizu
5-5 (W-L)
August Holmgren
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Yuta Shimizu
0–2
August Holmgren
(2 last)
- 24 Apr0-2 10-13L
- 18 Jul1-2 13-16L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Yuta Shimizu 1506 · August Holmgren 1470
| Yuta Shimizu | August Holmgren | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 45% |
| Market | 39% | 61% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- August Holmgren dominates on serve: 6.1 aces and 43.4% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Yuta Shimizu 0–2 August Holmgren (2).
Statistics
| Yuta Shimizu | August Holmgren | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (10) | 30% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.1 | 0.9-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.3-11.2 | 11.5-12.2 |
| Aces | 4.2 | 6.1 |
| Double faults | 2 | 3.5 |
| 1st serve % | 78.8% | 72.5% |
| Break % | 54.2% | 43.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.7
H2H · Yuta Shimizu 0 – 2 August Holmgren (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Yuta Shimizu 0–2 August Holmgren
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/04/26 Challenger Gwangju | 0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 18/07/25 Challenger Granby | 1-2 | 13-16 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Yuta Shimizu
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11 | Stefanos Sakellaridis Challenger Taipei · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 02/11 | Evan Zhu Challenger Taipei · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 01/11 | Dimitris Sakellaridis Challenger Taipei · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 28/10 | Yu Hsiou Hsu Challenger Ningbo · Hard |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 26/10 | Mili Poljicak Challenger Ningbo · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 18/10 | Max Purcell Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 02/10 | Bernard Tomic Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 29/09 | Stefanos Sakellaridis Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 15/09 | Philip Sekulic Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 12/09 | Arthur Weber Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
August Holmgren
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/11 | Daniel Michalski Challenger Taipei · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 27/10 | Jay Friend Challenger Seoul · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 13/10 | Luca Nardi Challenger Olbia · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 06/10 | Pedro Martinez Challenger Villena · Hard |
1-2 | 17-16 | L |
| 02/10 | Henrique Rocha Challenger Porto · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 01/10 | Andrea Guerrieri Challenger Porto · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 28/09 | Benjamin Bonzi Challenger Porto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 07/09 | Vadym Ursu Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 01/09 | Felix Balshaw Challenger Manacor · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 24/08 | Andrea Guerrieri US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Yuta Shimizu vs August Holmgren?
Our model gives 54% to August Holmgren, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.