Tennis · M15 San Gregorio · 03/11, 12:00

Prediction: Sebastiano Cocola vs Matteo Vavassori

Team pages: Sebastiano Cocola · Matteo Vavassori

Prediction summary

Winner

53% 47%

Sebastiano Cocola Matteo Vavassori

Estimated games

Recent form · 10 last

Sebastiano Cocola 5-5 (W-L)

LWLWWWLWLL

Matteo Vavassori 6-4 (W-L)

LLWWLLWWWW

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sebastiano Cocola 1445 · Matteo Vavassori 1493

	Sebastiano Cocola	Matteo Vavassori
Our model	43%	57%
Market	61%	39%

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Match keys

Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Matteo Vavassori (rating 1445 vs 1493).
Note: Matteo Vavassori makes many double faults (5.3/match).

Statistics

	Sebastiano Cocola	Matteo Vavassori
Win %	30%	50%
Win % · Clay	30% (10)	50% (10)
Sets (G-P)	0.8-1.5	1.2-1.2
Games (G-P)	9.1-11.6	10.3-9.6
Aces	0.5	2.8
Double faults	2	5.3
1st serve %	56.4%	64.3%
Break %	37%	46%

Estimated total games (ours) 21

Odds Bet365

11.53

22.38

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53
2	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.3%

Time*	1	2
02:16 +18’	1.53	2.38

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Last 10 matches played

Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sebastiano Cocola

WLLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	Sets	Games	Res.
11/10	Pedro Rodenas Challenger Catania · Clay	0-2	12-14	L
04/10	Pedro Vives Marcos Challenger Palermo · Clay	0-2	2-12	L
21/09	Andrea De Marchi M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay	1-2	10-16	L
17/09	Eric Vanshelboim M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay	0-2	4-12	L
16/09	Nicolas Parizzia M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay	2-0	13-7	W
15/09	Louis Wessels M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay	2-1	14-15	W
14/09	Daniel Aleksandar Amarandei M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay	2-0	13-6	W
28/07	Lorenzo Comino M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay	0-2	4-9	L
21/07	Alessandro Bellifemine M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay	1-2	12-12	L
17/07	Guglielmo Verdese M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay	0-2	7-13	L

Matteo Vavassori

LWWLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	Sets	Games	Res.
06/10	Gabriele Pennaforti M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay	1-2	10-9	L
17/09	Martin Van Der Meerschen M15 Tsaghkadzor · ~Clay	1-2	13-16	L
16/09	Marat Salbiev M15 Tsaghkadzor · ~Clay	2-1	16-11	W
14/09	Filippo Callerio M15 Tsaghkadzor · ~Clay	2-0	13-6	W
10/09	Niklas Guttau M15 Tsaghkadzor · ~Clay	0-2	4-12	L
27/08	Sebastian Gima M15 Bucharest · ~Clay	0-2	5-12	L
26/08	Andre Meinertz M15 Bucharest · ~Clay	2-0	12-2	W
25/08	Luc Wieland M15 Bucharest · ~Clay	2-0	12-6	W
16/06	Giacomo Crisostomo M15 Bourg-en-Bresse · ~Clay	0-2	9-13	L
15/06	Filiberto Fumagalli M15 Bourg-en-Bresse · ~Clay	2-1	9-9	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sebastiano Cocola vs Matteo Vavassori?

Our model gives 53% to Sebastiano Cocola, using surface Elo on clay.

What is the prediction based on?

On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.