Tennis · Challenger Taipei · 03/11, 03:00
Prediction: Joel Schwaerzler vs Jan Kumstat
Team pages: Joel Schwaerzler · Jan Kumstat
Prediction summary
Winner
Joel Schwaerzler
Jan Kumstat
Estimated games
21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Joel Schwaerzler
4-6 (W-L)
Jan Kumstat
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Joel Schwaerzler 1477 · Jan Kumstat 1487
| Joel Schwaerzler | Jan Kumstat | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 51% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Joel Schwaerzler | Jan Kumstat | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 44% (9) | 25% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.3 | 1.3-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.9-11.5 | 11.1-10.1 |
| Aces | 6 | 5.7 |
| Double faults | 1.9 | 2.2 |
| 1st serve % | 70.7% | 74.7% |
| Break % | 37.3% | 33.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Joel Schwaerzler
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Titouan Droguet ATP Vienna · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 17/10 | Federico Cina ATP Brussels · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 08/10 | Jack Pinnington Jones Challenger Villena · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 06/10 | Felix Balshaw Challenger Villena · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 03/10 | Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg Challenger Mouilleron le Captif · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 02/10 | Lucas Poullain Challenger Mouilleron le Captif · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/10 | Harry Wendelken Challenger Mouilleron le Captif · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 29/09 | Alberto Barroso Campos Challenger Mouilleron le Captif · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 22/09 | Maxime Chazal Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
1-2 | 16-15 | L |
| 03/09 | Luca Potenza Challenger Manacor · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Jan Kumstat
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/10 | Sho Shimabukuro Challenger Seoul · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 18/10 | Michael Mmoh ATP Lyon · Hard |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 15/10 | Jacob Fearnley Challenger Olbia · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 13/10 | Edas Butvilas Challenger Olbia · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 31/08 | Juan Pablo Varillas Challenger Como · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 22/08 | Chun Hsin Tseng Challenger Prague · Clay |
2-1 | 17-10 | W |
| 21/08 | Filip Cristian Jianu Challenger Prague · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 20/08 | Maxim Mrva Challenger Prague · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 19/08 | Sumit Nagal Challenger Prague · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 18/08 | Petr Brunclik Challenger Prague · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Joel Schwaerzler vs Jan Kumstat?
Our model gives 51% to Jan Kumstat, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.