Tennis · Challenger Taipei · 03/11, 03:00
Prediction: Daniel Michalski vs August Holmgren
Team pages: Daniel Michalski · August Holmgren
Prediction summary
Winner
Daniel Michalski
August Holmgren
Estimated games
21.8
Recent form · 10 last
Daniel Michalski
10-0 (W-L)
August Holmgren
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Daniel Michalski
1–0
August Holmgren
(1 last)
- 21 May2-0 12-4W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Daniel Michalski 1608 · August Holmgren 1424
| Daniel Michalski | August Holmgren | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 74% | 26% |
| Market | 35% | 65% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Daniel Michalski (rating 1608 vs 1424).
- Daniel Michalski is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Daniel Michalski 1–0 August Holmgren (1).
- Note: August Holmgren makes many double faults (4.1/match).
Statistics
| Daniel Michalski | August Holmgren | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 20% |
| Win % · Hard | – | 20% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.9-0.3 | 0.8-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.8-6.8 | 11.6-13.3 |
| Aces | 1.3 | 6 |
| Double faults | 2.5 | 4.1 |
| 1st serve % | 68.4% | 72.5% |
| Break % | 53.1% | 35.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.8
H2H · Daniel Michalski 1 – 0 August Holmgren (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Daniel Michalski 1–0 August Holmgren
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/05/24 Challenger Augsburg | 2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Daniel Michalski
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Alexander Weis M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 10/10 | Ivan Ivanov M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-8 | W |
| 09/10 | Giovanni Oradini M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 08/10 | Alessandro Bellifemine M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 07/10 | Lorenzo Bocchi M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 26/09 | Laurent Lokoli M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 25/09 | Eric Vanshelboim M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 24/09 | Lorenzo Carboni M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 23/09 | Giacomo Crisostomo M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 22/09 | Lorenzo Beraldo M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
August Holmgren
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/10 | Jay Friend Challenger Seoul · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 13/10 | Luca Nardi Challenger Olbia · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 06/10 | Pedro Martinez Challenger Villena · Hard |
1-2 | 17-16 | L |
| 02/10 | Henrique Rocha Challenger Porto · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 01/10 | Andrea Guerrieri Challenger Porto · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 28/09 | Benjamin Bonzi Challenger Porto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 07/09 | Vadym Ursu Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 01/09 | Felix Balshaw Challenger Manacor · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 24/08 | Andrea Guerrieri US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 29/07 | Braden Shick Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Daniel Michalski vs August Holmgren?
Our model gives 53% to Daniel Michalski, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.