Tennis · Challenger Olbia · 17/10, 16:30
Prediction: Jacob Fearnley vs Luca Nardi
Team pages: Jacob Fearnley · Luca Nardi
Prediction summary
Winner
Jacob Fearnley
Luca Nardi
Estimated games
23.1
Recent form · 10 last
Jacob Fearnley
7-3 (W-L)
Luca Nardi
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Jacob Fearnley
1–0
Luca Nardi
(1 last)
- 10 Jun2-1 16-9W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jacob Fearnley 1570 · Luca Nardi 1526
| Jacob Fearnley | Luca Nardi | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 69% | 31% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jacob Fearnley (rating 1570 vs 1526).
- Head-to-head: Jacob Fearnley 1–0 Luca Nardi (1).
- Note: Jacob Fearnley makes many double faults (6.1/match).
Statistics
| Jacob Fearnley | Luca Nardi | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 75% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-1 | 1.3-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.1-11.5 | 12.1-10.5 |
| Aces | 4.4 | 4.1 |
| Double faults | 6.1 | 3.1 |
| 1st serve % | 72.7% | 70.7% |
| Break % | 45.9% | 51.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.1
H2H · Jacob Fearnley 1 – 0 Luca Nardi (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Jacob Fearnley 1–0 Luca Nardi
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/06/26 Challenger Ilkley | 2-1 | 16-9 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jacob Fearnley
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/10 | Maxim Mrva Challenger Olbia · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 15/10 | Jan Kumstat Challenger Olbia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 13/10 | George Loffhagen Challenger Olbia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/09 | Alejo Sanchez Quilez Challenger Porto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 02/09 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 15-21 | L |
| 31/08 | Martin Landaluce US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 27-22 | W |
| 28/08 | Jurij Rodionov US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 26/08 | Luka Pavlovic US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 24/08 | Roberto Carballes Baena US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 22/08 | Taro Daniel Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Luca Nardi
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/10 | Michael Mmoh Challenger Olbia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 14/10 | Lorenzo Carboni Challenger Olbia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 13/10 | August Holmgren Challenger Olbia · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 05/10 | Pablo Llamas Ruiz Challenger Villena · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 11/07 | Andrea Guerrieri ATP Umag · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 24/06 | Otto Virtanen Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Rio Noguchi Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 15/06 | Remy Bertola Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
1-2 | 18-17 | L |
| 14/06 | Giles Hussey Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 13/06 | Oscar Weightman Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jacob Fearnley vs Luca Nardi?
Our model gives 63% to Jacob Fearnley, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.