Tennis · Challenger Olbia · 16/10, 10:00
Prediction: Maks Kasnikowski vs Stefano Travaglia
Team pages: Maks Kasnikowski · Stefano Travaglia
Prediction summary
Winner
Maks Kasnikowski
Stefano Travaglia
Estimated games
22.1
Recent form · 10 last
Maks Kasnikowski
5-5 (W-L)
Stefano Travaglia
3-7 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Maks Kasnikowski
1–0
Stefano Travaglia
(1 last)
- 28 Jun2-0 13-8W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Maks Kasnikowski 1536 · Stefano Travaglia 1459
| Maks Kasnikowski | Stefano Travaglia | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 39% |
| Market | 61% | 39% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Maks Kasnikowski (rating 1536 vs 1459).
- Maks Kasnikowski is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Maks Kasnikowski 1–0 Stefano Travaglia (1).
Statistics
| Maks Kasnikowski | Stefano Travaglia | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 67% (9) | 67% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.1 | 0.9-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.5-10.1 | 10.8-13 |
| Aces | 3.3 | 7.1 |
| Double faults | 1.3 | 2.6 |
| 1st serve % | 75.6% | 70.6% |
| Break % | 34% | 30.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.1
H2H · Maks Kasnikowski 1 – 0 Stefano Travaglia (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Maks Kasnikowski 1–0 Stefano Travaglia
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06/23 Challenger Modena | 2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Maks Kasnikowski
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/10 | Andrea Guerrieri Challenger Olbia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 12/10 | Cezar Cretu Challenger Olbia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 07/10 | Philip Henning Challenger Villena · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 19/09 | Alex De Minaur Davis Cup |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 12/09 | Jay Friend Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 11/09 | Francesco Maestrelli Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-1 | 14-7 | W |
| 09/09 | Christian Langmo Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 07/09 | Ivan Marrero Curbelo Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 03/09 | Alejo Sanchez Quilez Challenger Manacor · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 02/09 | Elmer Moller Challenger Manacor · Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
Stefano Travaglia
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/10 | Valentin Royer Challenger Olbia · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 13/10 | Viktor Durasovic Challenger Olbia · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 22/09 | Marvin Moeller Challenger Genoa · Clay |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 14/09 | Thiago Monteiro Challenger Szczecin · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 10/09 | Enrico Dalla Valle Challenger Genoa · Clay |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 08/09 | Stefano Napolitano Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 24/08 | Harry Wendelken US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 04/08 | Matej Dodig Challenger Hagen · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 28/07 | Max Hans Rehberg Challenger Bonn · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 17/07 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo ATP Bastad · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Maks Kasnikowski vs Stefano Travaglia?
Our model gives 61% to Maks Kasnikowski, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.