Tennis · Challenger Olbia · 16/10, 15:00
Prediction: Jacob Fearnley vs Maxim Mrva
Team pages: Jacob Fearnley · Maxim Mrva
Prediction summary
Winner
Jacob Fearnley
Maxim Mrva
Estimated games
22.7
Recent form · 10 last
Jacob Fearnley
7-3 (W-L)
Maxim Mrva
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jacob Fearnley 1565 · Maxim Mrva 1548
| Jacob Fearnley | Maxim Mrva | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 48% |
| Market | 73% | 27% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Jacob Fearnley makes many double faults (6.4/match).
Statistics
| Jacob Fearnley | Maxim Mrva | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 100% (1) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-1 | 1.5-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 14-11.4 | 12.4-9.4 |
| Aces | 4.7 | 2.7 |
| Double faults | 6.4 | 3 |
| 1st serve % | 73.4% | 64% |
| Break % | 43.6% | 53.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jacob Fearnley
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/10 | Jan Kumstat Challenger Olbia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 13/10 | George Loffhagen Challenger Olbia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/09 | Alejo Sanchez Quilez Challenger Porto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 02/09 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 15-21 | L |
| 31/08 | Martin Landaluce US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 27-22 | W |
| 28/08 | Jurij Rodionov US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 26/08 | Luka Pavlovic US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 24/08 | Roberto Carballes Baena US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 22/08 | Taro Daniel Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 21/08 | Alexis Galarneau Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Maxim Mrva
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/10 | Francesco Maestrelli Challenger Olbia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 24/09 | Izan Almazan Valiente Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
1-2 | 13-13 | L |
| 22/09 | Nikita Mashtakov Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 03/09 | Federico Iannaccone Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 01/09 | Oleg Prihodko Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-1 | 19-13 | W |
| 20/08 | Jan Kumstat Challenger Prague · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 19/08 | Cezar Cretu Challenger Prague · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 18/08 | Nerman Fatic Challenger Prague · Clay |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 16/08 | Nicolas Kicker Challenger Todi · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 15/08 | Alex Barrena Challenger Todi · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jacob Fearnley vs Maxim Mrva?
Our model gives 64% to Jacob Fearnley, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.