Tennis · Challenger Jinan · 17/10, 11:00
Prediction: Martin Landaluce vs Liam Draxl
Team pages: Martin Landaluce · Liam Draxl
Prediction summary
Winner
Martin Landaluce
Liam Draxl
Estimated games
23.8
Recent form · 10 last
Martin Landaluce
4-6 (W-L)
Liam Draxl
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Martin Landaluce 1489 · Liam Draxl 1585
| Martin Landaluce | Liam Draxl | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 63% |
| Market | 61% | 39% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Liam Draxl (rating 1489 vs 1585).
- Liam Draxl dominates on serve: 7.3 aces and 57.6% break avg.
- Liam Draxl is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Note: Martin Landaluce makes many double faults (4.4/match).
Statistics
| Martin Landaluce | Liam Draxl | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 38% (8) | 78% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.4 | 1.8-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.4-13.3 | 13.9-11.1 |
| Aces | 4.9 | 7.3 |
| Double faults | 4.4 | 1.3 |
| 1st serve % | 67.8% | 70.1% |
| Break % | 40% | 57.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Martin Landaluce
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/10 | Keegan Smith Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 14/10 | Jie Cui Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 13/10 | Ilia Simakin Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 08/10 | Jan-Lennard Struff ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 28/09 | Marco Trungelliti ATP Beijing · Hard |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 20/09 | Matias Soto Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 08/09 | Dusan Lajovic Challenger Seville · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 31/08 | Jacob Fearnley US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 22-27 | L |
| 23/08 | Mattia Bellucci ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 17/08 | Thiago Agustin Tirante ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
Liam Draxl
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/10 | Tomas Machac Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 15/10 | Ilya Ivashka Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-1 | 12-14 | W |
| 14/10 | James Duckworth Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 13/10 | Omar Jasika Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 11/10 | Yutong Du Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 06/10 | Nikoloz Basilashvili ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 05/10 | Hugo Gaston ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 23/09 | Henry Searle Challenger San Diego · Hard |
1-2 | 16-15 | L |
| 22/09 | Jack Kennedy Challenger San Diego · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 18/09 | Arthur Rinderknech Davis Cup |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Martin Landaluce vs Liam Draxl?
Our model gives 50% to Martin Landaluce, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.