Tennis · Challenger Jinan · 16/10, 04:00
Prediction: Tomas Machac vs Liam Draxl
Team pages: Tomas Machac · Liam Draxl
Prediction summary
Winner
Tomas Machac
Liam Draxl
Estimated games
22.7
Recent form · 10 last
Tomas Machac
3-7 (W-L)
Liam Draxl
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tomas Machac 1480 · Liam Draxl 1567
| Tomas Machac | Liam Draxl | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 62% |
| Market | 69% | 31% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Liam Draxl (rating 1480 vs 1567).
- Liam Draxl dominates on serve: 8 aces and 59.3% break avg.
- Liam Draxl is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Tomas Machac | Liam Draxl | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 40% (10) | 67% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.5 | 1.7-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.9-12.1 | 14.1-11.5 |
| Aces | 4.8 | 8 |
| Double faults | 1.8 | 1.9 |
| 1st serve % | 66.2% | 71.5% |
| Break % | 37.7% | 59.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tomas Machac
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/10 | Aleksandar Vukic Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 13/10 | Alexandre Muller Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 09/10 | Alexander Bublik ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 07/10 | Zhizhen Zhang ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 01/10 | Alex Molcan ATP Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 29/09 | Arthur Gea ATP Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 28/09 | Yannick Hanfmann ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 30/08 | Toby Samuel US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 7-18 | L |
| 26/08 | Mees Rottgering ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 14/08 | Pablo Carreno Busta ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Liam Draxl
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/10 | Ilya Ivashka Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-1 | 12-14 | W |
| 14/10 | James Duckworth Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 13/10 | Omar Jasika Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 11/10 | Yutong Du Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 06/10 | Nikoloz Basilashvili ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 05/10 | Hugo Gaston ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 23/09 | Henry Searle Challenger San Diego · Hard |
1-2 | 16-15 | L |
| 22/09 | Jack Kennedy Challenger San Diego · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 18/09 | Arthur Rinderknech Davis Cup |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 28/08 | Tristan Schoolkate US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tomas Machac vs Liam Draxl?
Our model gives 55% to Tomas Machac, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.