Tennis · Challenger Jinan · 16/10, 04:00
Prediction: Alexander Shevchenko vs Mattia Bellucci
Team pages: Alexander Shevchenko · Mattia Bellucci
Prediction summary
Winner
Alexander Shevchenko
Mattia Bellucci
Estimated games
21.8
Recent form · 10 last
Alexander Shevchenko
6-4 (W-L)
Mattia Bellucci
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alexander Shevchenko 1482 · Mattia Bellucci 1597
| Alexander Shevchenko | Mattia Bellucci | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 66% |
| Market | 34% | 66% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mattia Bellucci (rating 1482 vs 1597).
- Mattia Bellucci dominates on serve: 6.6 aces and 41.6% break avg.
- Mattia Bellucci is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Statistics
| Alexander Shevchenko | Mattia Bellucci | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 38% (8) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.3 | 1.8-0.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.8-11.2 | 13.4-8.6 |
| Aces | 6.9 | 6.6 |
| Double faults | 3 | 1.9 |
| 1st serve % | 74.1% | 76.6% |
| Break % | 31.9% | 41.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alexander Shevchenko
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/10 | Jay Friend Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 13/10 | Miomir Kecmanovic Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 05/10 | Yoshihito Nishioka ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 01/10 | Hayato Matsuoka Asian Games |
1-2 | 8-15 | L |
| 29/09 | Abhishek Bastola Asian Games |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 24/09 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 30/08 | Dino Prizmic US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 24-26 | L |
| 14/08 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 13/08 | Christopher O'Connell ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 11/08 | Pablo Llamas Ruiz ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Mattia Bellucci
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/10 | Luka Pavlovic Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 13/10 | Elias Ymer Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 07/10 | Yi Zhou ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 06/10 | Alexandre Muller ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 05/10 | Elias Ymer ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 04/10 | Lloyd Harris Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
1-2 | 15-14 | L |
| 03/10 | Yanki Erel Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 01/10 | Adam Walton Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 30/09 | Alexandre Muller Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 29/09 | Keisuke Saitoh Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alexander Shevchenko vs Mattia Bellucci?
Our model gives 66% to Mattia Bellucci, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.