Tennis · Challenger Jinan · 17/10, 09:30
Prediction: Mattia Bellucci vs Shintaro Mochizuki
Team pages: Mattia Bellucci · Shintaro Mochizuki
Prediction summary
Winner
Mattia Bellucci
Shintaro Mochizuki
Estimated games
22
Recent form · 10 last
Mattia Bellucci
8-2 (W-L)
Shintaro Mochizuki
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mattia Bellucci 1597 · Shintaro Mochizuki 1534
| Mattia Bellucci | Shintaro Mochizuki | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 41% |
| Market | 69% | 31% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mattia Bellucci (rating 1597 vs 1534).
- Mattia Bellucci dominates on serve: 6.8 aces and 40.9% break avg.
- Note: Shintaro Mochizuki makes many double faults (4.1/match).
Statistics
| Mattia Bellucci | Shintaro Mochizuki | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (10) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.5 | 1.2-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.4-9 | 11.1-11.4 |
| Aces | 6.8 | 3.3 |
| Double faults | 1.7 | 4.1 |
| 1st serve % | 75.4% | 71.4% |
| Break % | 40.9% | 47.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mattia Bellucci
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/10 | Alexander Shevchenko Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 15/10 | Luka Pavlovic Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 13/10 | Elias Ymer Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 07/10 | Yi Zhou ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 06/10 | Alexandre Muller ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 05/10 | Elias Ymer ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 04/10 | Lloyd Harris Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
1-2 | 15-14 | L |
| 03/10 | Yanki Erel Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 01/10 | Adam Walton Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 30/09 | Alexandre Muller Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Shintaro Mochizuki
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/10 | Yosuke Watanuki Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 15/10 | Dane Sweeny Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 13/10 | Facundo Diaz Acosta Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 06/10 | Roman Safiullin ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 05/10 | Taro Daniel ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 14-10 | W |
| 28/09 | Jaime Faria ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 24/09 | Martin Damm ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 23/09 | Pavel Kotov ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 22/09 | Linang Xiao ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 15/09 | Pavel Kotov Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mattia Bellucci vs Shintaro Mochizuki?
Our model gives 64% to Mattia Bellucci, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.