Tennis · Challenger Jinan · 16/10, 04:00
Prediction: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Yosuke Watanuki
Team pages: Shintaro Mochizuki · Yosuke Watanuki
Prediction summary
Winner
Shintaro Mochizuki
Yosuke Watanuki
Estimated games
20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Shintaro Mochizuki
4-6 (W-L)
Yosuke Watanuki
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Shintaro Mochizuki 1505 · Yosuke Watanuki 1538
| Shintaro Mochizuki | Yosuke Watanuki | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 55% |
| Market | 44% | 56% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Shintaro Mochizuki makes many double faults (4.4/match).
Statistics
| Shintaro Mochizuki | Yosuke Watanuki | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (10) | 56% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.3 | 1.3-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.4-11.9 | 10.3-8.2 |
| Aces | 2.8 | 6.5 |
| Double faults | 4.4 | 2.3 |
| 1st serve % | 69.8% | 79% |
| Break % | 51.6% | 37% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Shintaro Mochizuki
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/10 | Dane Sweeny Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 13/10 | Facundo Diaz Acosta Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 06/10 | Roman Safiullin ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 05/10 | Taro Daniel ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 14-10 | W |
| 28/09 | Jaime Faria ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 24/09 | Martin Damm ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 23/09 | Pavel Kotov ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 22/09 | Linang Xiao ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 15/09 | Pavel Kotov Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 01/09 | Jakub Mensik US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 10-19 | L |
Yosuke Watanuki
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/10 | Marin Cilic Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 14/10 | Andre Ilagan Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 13/10 | Kaito Uesugi Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 11/10 | Semen Pankin Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 29/09 | Fares Alwazer Asian Games |
2-0 | 12-0 | W |
| 07/09 | Marat Sharipov Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 02/09 | Chun Hsin Tseng Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 31/08 | Semen Pankin Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 29/07 | Hayato Matsuoka Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 23/07 | Toby Samuel Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Shintaro Mochizuki vs Yosuke Watanuki?
Our model gives 55% to Yosuke Watanuki, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.