Tennis · Challenger Jinan · 15/10, 05:00
Prediction: Luka Pavlovic vs Mattia Bellucci
Team pages: Luka Pavlovic · Mattia Bellucci
Prediction summary
Winner
Luka Pavlovic
Mattia Bellucci
Estimated games
22
Recent form · 10 last
Luka Pavlovic
7-3 (W-L)
Mattia Bellucci
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Luka Pavlovic 1523 · Mattia Bellucci 1584
| Luka Pavlovic | Mattia Bellucci | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 59% |
| Market | 17% | 83% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mattia Bellucci (rating 1523 vs 1584).
- Luka Pavlovic dominates on serve: 7.8 aces and 41.6% break avg.
- Mattia Bellucci dominates on serve: 7 aces and 41.8% break avg.
- Mattia Bellucci is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Statistics
| Luka Pavlovic | Mattia Bellucci | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (10) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1 | 1.8-0.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.1-11.3 | 13.4-8.4 |
| Aces | 7.8 | 7 |
| Double faults | 2.4 | 1.5 |
| 1st serve % | 80.8% | 79.1% |
| Break % | 41.6% | 41.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Luka Pavlovic
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/10 | Tristan Schoolkate Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 12/10 | Kangyuan Shi Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 11/10 | Thomas Fancutt Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 05/10 | Ilia Simakin ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 01/10 | Lloyd Harris Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 29/09 | Akira Santillan Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 22/09 | Alexandre Muller ATP Chengdu · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 16/09 | Hunter Heck Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 15/09 | Ha Minh Duc Vu Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 26/08 | Jacob Fearnley US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
Mattia Bellucci
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10 | Elias Ymer Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 07/10 | Yi Zhou ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 06/10 | Alexandre Muller ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 05/10 | Elias Ymer ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 04/10 | Lloyd Harris Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
1-2 | 15-14 | L |
| 03/10 | Yanki Erel Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 01/10 | Adam Walton Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 30/09 | Alexandre Muller Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 29/09 | Keisuke Saitoh Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 28/09 | Filip Peliwo Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Luka Pavlovic vs Mattia Bellucci?
Our model gives 72% to Mattia Bellucci, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.