Tennis · Challenger Jinan · 15/10, 05:00
Prediction: Ilya Ivashka vs Liam Draxl
Team pages: Ilya Ivashka · Liam Draxl
Prediction summary
Winner
Ilya Ivashka
Liam Draxl
Estimated games
22.8
Recent form · 10 last
Ilya Ivashka
8-2 (W-L)
Liam Draxl
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ilya Ivashka 1614 · Liam Draxl 1565
| Ilya Ivashka | Liam Draxl | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ilya Ivashka (rating 1614 vs 1565).
- Liam Draxl dominates on serve: 7.5 aces and 58.8% break avg.
Statistics
| Ilya Ivashka | Liam Draxl | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 90% (10) | 67% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.6 | 1.7-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.4-9.6 | 14.1-10.7 |
| Aces | 4.8 | 7.5 |
| Double faults | 2 | 1.7 |
| 1st serve % | 80.6% | 72.2% |
| Break % | 41.7% | 58.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ilya Ivashka
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10 | Kaichi Uchida Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 11/10 | Beibit Zhukayev Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 13/09 | Marat Sharipov Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 12/09 | Luca Castelnuovo Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 11/09 | Yi Zhou Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 10/09 | Bernard Tomic Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 08/09 | Yu Hsiou Hsu Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 04/09 | Ilia Simakin Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 03/09 | Akira Santillan Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 01/09 | Yi Zhou Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
Liam Draxl
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/10 | James Duckworth Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 13/10 | Omar Jasika Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 11/10 | Yutong Du Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 06/10 | Nikoloz Basilashvili ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 05/10 | Hugo Gaston ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 23/09 | Henry Searle Challenger San Diego · Hard |
1-2 | 16-15 | L |
| 22/09 | Jack Kennedy Challenger San Diego · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 18/09 | Arthur Rinderknech Davis Cup |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 28/08 | Tristan Schoolkate US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 26/08 | Andrew Johnson US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ilya Ivashka vs Liam Draxl?
Our model gives 53% to Ilya Ivashka, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.