Tennis · Challenger Jinan · 15/10, 05:00
Prediction: Tomas Machac vs Aleksandar Vukic
Team pages: Tomas Machac · Aleksandar Vukic
Prediction summary
Winner
Tomas Machac
Aleksandar Vukic
Estimated games
23.3
Recent form · 10 last
Tomas Machac
2-8 (W-L)
Aleksandar Vukic
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Tomas Machac
2–0
Aleksandar Vukic
(2 last)
- 08 Oct2-0 12-6W
- 24 Oct2-0 12-4W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tomas Machac 1458 · Aleksandar Vukic 1520
| Tomas Machac | Aleksandar Vukic | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 59% |
| Market | 65% | 35% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Aleksandar Vukic (rating 1458 vs 1520).
- Head-to-head: Tomas Machac 2–0 Aleksandar Vukic (2).
Statistics
| Tomas Machac | Aleksandar Vukic | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 33% (9) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.6-1.8 | 1.4-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.5-13.6 | 13.6-13.2 |
| Aces | 4.4 | 8.8 |
| Double faults | 1.9 | 2.6 |
| 1st serve % | 64.4% | 75.5% |
| Break % | 31% | 35.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.3
H2H · Tomas Machac 2 – 0 Aleksandar Vukic (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Tomas Machac 2–0 Aleksandar Vukic
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10/24 ATP Shanghai | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 24/10/23 ATP Vienna | 2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tomas Machac
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10 | Alexandre Muller Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 09/10 | Alexander Bublik ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 07/10 | Zhizhen Zhang ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 01/10 | Alex Molcan ATP Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 29/09 | Arthur Gea ATP Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 28/09 | Yannick Hanfmann ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 30/08 | Toby Samuel US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 7-18 | L |
| 26/08 | Mees Rottgering ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 14/08 | Pablo Carreno Busta ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 27/05 | Alexander Zverev French Open · Clay |
0-3 | 8-18 | L |
Aleksandar Vukic
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/10 | Hayato Matsuoka Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 06/10 | Pavel Kotov ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 05/10 | Jie Cui ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 18-18 | W |
| 28/09 | Ryan Seggerman Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 23/09 | Kyrian Jacquet ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 31/08 | Rei Sakamoto US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 25-27 | L |
| 20/08 | Stefanos Sakellaridis Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 20/08 | Kyrian Jacquet Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 13/08 | Mark Lajal ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 13/08 | Darwin Blanch ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tomas Machac vs Aleksandar Vukic?
Our model gives 54% to Tomas Machac, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.