Tennis · Challenger Jinan · 15/10, 05:00
Prediction: Yosuke Watanuki vs Marin Cilic
Team pages: Yosuke Watanuki · Marin Cilic
Prediction summary
Winner
Yosuke Watanuki
Marin Cilic
Estimated games
21.6
Recent form · 10 last
Yosuke Watanuki
7-3 (W-L)
Marin Cilic
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Yosuke Watanuki 1533 · Marin Cilic 1477
| Yosuke Watanuki | Marin Cilic | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 35% | 65% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Yosuke Watanuki (rating 1533 vs 1477).
- Marin Cilic dominates on serve: 7.5 aces and 43.9% break avg.
Statistics
| Yosuke Watanuki | Marin Cilic | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 56% (9) | 40% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-0.8 | 1.1-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.4-8.4 | 11.3-13.9 |
| Aces | 5.9 | 7.5 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 2.5 |
| 1st serve % | 79.9% | 72.9% |
| Break % | 37.6% | 43.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Yosuke Watanuki
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/10 | Andre Ilagan Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 13/10 | Kaito Uesugi Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 11/10 | Semen Pankin Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 29/09 | Fares Alwazer Asian Games |
2-0 | 12-0 | W |
| 07/09 | Marat Sharipov Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 02/09 | Chun Hsin Tseng Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 31/08 | Semen Pankin Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 29/07 | Hayato Matsuoka Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 23/07 | Toby Samuel Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 21/07 | Andre Ilagan Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
Marin Cilic
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10 | Adam Walton Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 07/10 | Arthur Fery ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 15/08 | Daniel Merida Aguilar ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 8-15 | L |
| 05/08 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 11-17 | L |
| 04/08 | Sho Shimabukuro ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 29/06 | Daniil Medvedev Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 7-18 | L |
| 16/06 | Ugo Humbert ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 13/06 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 12/06 | Nuno Borges ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 08/06 | Denis Shapovalov ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Yosuke Watanuki vs Marin Cilic?
Our model gives 54% to Marin Cilic, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.