Tennis · Challenger Olbia · 15/10, 11:00
Prediction: Maxim Mrva vs Francesco Maestrelli
Team pages: Maxim Mrva · Francesco Maestrelli
Prediction summary
Winner
Maxim Mrva
Francesco Maestrelli
Estimated games
23
Recent form · 10 last
Maxim Mrva
5-5 (W-L)
Francesco Maestrelli
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Maxim Mrva 1559 · Francesco Maestrelli 1508
| Maxim Mrva | Francesco Maestrelli | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 41% | 59% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Maxim Mrva (rating 1559 vs 1508).
- Francesco Maestrelli dominates on serve: 7.2 aces and 45.1% break avg.
Statistics
| Maxim Mrva | Francesco Maestrelli | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 70% (10) | – |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1 | 1.4-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.7-10.1 | 11.9-12.4 |
| Aces | 2.6 | 7.2 |
| Double faults | 3.7 | 2.3 |
| 1st serve % | 63.5% | 68.9% |
| Break % | 56.3% | 45.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Maxim Mrva
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09 | Izan Almazan Valiente Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
1-2 | 13-13 | L |
| 22/09 | Nikita Mashtakov Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 03/09 | Federico Iannaccone Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 01/09 | Oleg Prihodko Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-1 | 19-13 | W |
| 20/08 | Jan Kumstat Challenger Prague · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 19/08 | Cezar Cretu Challenger Prague · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 18/08 | Nerman Fatic Challenger Prague · Clay |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 16/08 | Nicolas Kicker Challenger Todi · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 15/08 | Alex Barrena Challenger Todi · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 12/08 | Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Challenger Todi · Clay |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
Francesco Maestrelli
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10 | Mili Poljicak Challenger Olbia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 07/10 | Oliver Tarvet Challenger Villena · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 21/09 | Andrea Guerrieri Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 18/09 | Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg Challenger Rennes · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 17/09 | Yanis Ghazouani Durand Challenger Rennes · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 16/09 | Arthur Nagel Challenger Rennes · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 11/09 | Maks Kasnikowski Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
1-2 | 7-14 | L |
| 09/09 | Alafia Ayeni Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 08/09 | Juan Pablo Ficovich Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 24/08 | Toby Samuel US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Maxim Mrva vs Francesco Maestrelli?
Our model gives 52% to Francesco Maestrelli, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.