Tennis · Challenger Olbia · 14/10, 16:30
Prediction: Luca Nardi vs Lorenzo Carboni
Team pages: Luca Nardi · Lorenzo Carboni
Prediction summary
Winner
Luca Nardi
Lorenzo Carboni
Estimated games
21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Luca Nardi
4-6 (W-L)
Lorenzo Carboni
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Luca Nardi 1478 · Lorenzo Carboni 1471
| Luca Nardi | Lorenzo Carboni | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 49% |
| Market | 72% | 28% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Luca Nardi | Lorenzo Carboni | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 0% (2) | 38% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.4 | 0.9-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.7-12.4 | 8.1-9.9 |
| Aces | 4.2 | 0.5 |
| Double faults | 3.8 | 1.8 |
| 1st serve % | 68.5% | 53.7% |
| Break % | 48.8% | 62.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Luca Nardi
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10 | August Holmgren Challenger Olbia · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 05/10 | Pablo Llamas Ruiz Challenger Villena · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 11/07 | Andrea Guerrieri ATP Umag · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 24/06 | Otto Virtanen Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Rio Noguchi Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 15/06 | Remy Bertola Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
1-2 | 18-17 | L |
| 14/06 | Giles Hussey Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 13/06 | Oscar Weightman Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 10/06 | Jacob Fearnley Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
1-2 | 9-16 | L |
| 04/06 | Remy Bertola Challenger Perugia · Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
Lorenzo Carboni
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/10 | Federico Iannaccone M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 02/10 | Sander Jong M25 Zaragoza · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 01/10 | Javier Barranco Cosano M25 Zaragoza · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 24/09 | Daniel Michalski M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 23/09 | Gabriele Pennaforti M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 21/09 | Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 15/09 | Matteo Sciahbasi M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 06/09 | Gerard Campana Lee Challenger Seville · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 29/08 | Andrey Chepelev M25 Lausanne |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 28/08 | Noah Karma M25 Lausanne |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Luca Nardi vs Lorenzo Carboni?
Our model gives 63% to Luca Nardi, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.