Tennis · Challenger Jinan · 15/10, 06:00
Prediction: Alexander Shevchenko vs Jay Friend
Team pages: Alexander Shevchenko · Jay Friend
Prediction summary
Winner
Alexander Shevchenko
Jay Friend
Estimated games
22.1
Recent form · 10 last
Alexander Shevchenko
6-4 (W-L)
Jay Friend
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alexander Shevchenko 1450 · Jay Friend 1576
| Alexander Shevchenko | Jay Friend | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 33% | 67% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jay Friend (rating 1450 vs 1576).
- Jay Friend is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Statistics
| Alexander Shevchenko | Jay Friend | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 25% (8) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.5 | 1.8-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.9-12.4 | 13.5-9.4 |
| Aces | 7.1 | 5.9 |
| Double faults | 3.6 | 3.3 |
| 1st serve % | 73.4% | 78.5% |
| Break % | 26.9% | 58% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alexander Shevchenko
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10 | Miomir Kecmanovic Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 05/10 | Yoshihito Nishioka ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 01/10 | Hayato Matsuoka Asian Games |
1-2 | 8-15 | L |
| 29/09 | Abhishek Bastola Asian Games |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 24/09 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 30/08 | Dino Prizmic US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 24-26 | L |
| 14/08 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 13/08 | Christopher O'Connell ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 11/08 | Pablo Llamas Ruiz ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 01/08 | Kyrian Jacquet ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
Jay Friend
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10 | Alibek Kachmazov Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 11/10 | Alibek Kachmazov Challenger Wuning · Hard |
1-2 | 18-18 | L |
| 10/10 | Keisuke Saitoh Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 09/10 | Ryan Seggerman Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 08/10 | Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 06/10 | Yuta Kikuchi Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 13/09 | Max Basing Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
1-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 12/09 | Maks Kasnikowski Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 11/09 | Yanki Erel Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 10/09 | Samir Hamza Reguig Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alexander Shevchenko vs Jay Friend?
Our model gives 58% to Jay Friend, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.