Tennis · Challenger Jinan · 15/10, 04:00
Prediction: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Dane Sweeny
Team pages: Shintaro Mochizuki · Dane Sweeny
Prediction summary
Winner
Shintaro Mochizuki
Dane Sweeny
Estimated games
22.7
Recent form · 10 last
Shintaro Mochizuki
3-7 (W-L)
Dane Sweeny
3-7 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Shintaro Mochizuki
1–0
Dane Sweeny
(1 last)
- 01 Aug2-1 14-15W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Shintaro Mochizuki 1486 · Dane Sweeny 1469
| Shintaro Mochizuki | Dane Sweeny | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 48% |
| Market | 56% | 44% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Shintaro Mochizuki 1–0 Dane Sweeny (1).
- Note: Shintaro Mochizuki makes many double faults (4.4/match).
Statistics
| Shintaro Mochizuki | Dane Sweeny | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 40% (10) | 40% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.5 | 1-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.7-12.2 | 11.4-12.6 |
| Aces | 2.5 | 3.7 |
| Double faults | 4.4 | 3 |
| 1st serve % | 69.9% | 67.9% |
| Break % | 47.8% | 37.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.7
H2H · Shintaro Mochizuki 1 – 0 Dane Sweeny (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Shintaro Mochizuki 1–0 Dane Sweeny
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08/26 ATP Montreal | 2-1 | 14-15 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Shintaro Mochizuki
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10 | Facundo Diaz Acosta Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 06/10 | Roman Safiullin ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 05/10 | Taro Daniel ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 14-10 | W |
| 28/09 | Jaime Faria ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 24/09 | Martin Damm ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 23/09 | Pavel Kotov ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 22/09 | Linang Xiao ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 15/09 | Pavel Kotov Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 01/09 | Jakub Mensik US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 10-19 | L |
| 28/08 | Francesco Passaro US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Dane Sweeny
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10 | Kimmer Coppejans ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 05/10 | Tristan Schoolkate ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 02/10 | Alex Bolt Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 01/10 | Petr Bar Biryukov Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/09 | Omar Jasika Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 24/09 | Taro Daniel ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 05/09 | Luciano Darderi US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 10-18 | L |
| 03/09 | Lorenzo Musetti US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 21-11 | W |
| 18/08 | Jesper De Jong Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 11/08 | Christopher O'Connell ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Shintaro Mochizuki vs Dane Sweeny?
Our model gives 54% to Shintaro Mochizuki, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.