Tennis · Challenger Jinan · 14/10, 05:00
Prediction: Hayato Matsuoka vs Aleksandar Vukic
Team pages: Hayato Matsuoka · Aleksandar Vukic
Prediction summary
Winner
Hayato Matsuoka
Aleksandar Vukic
Estimated games
24.3
Recent form · 10 last
Hayato Matsuoka
6-4 (W-L)
Aleksandar Vukic
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hayato Matsuoka 1521 · Aleksandar Vukic 1487
| Hayato Matsuoka | Aleksandar Vukic | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 45% |
| Market | 44% | 56% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Hayato Matsuoka | Aleksandar Vukic | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 43% (7) | 40% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.2 | 1.3-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.9-11.7 | 14.1-14.6 |
| Aces | 5.1 | 9.4 |
| Double faults | 2.1 | 2.6 |
| 1st serve % | 74.6% | 75.9% |
| Break % | 44.6% | 33% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hayato Matsuoka
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10 | James McCabe Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 11/10 | Qian Sun Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 02/10 | Yibing Wu Asian Games |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 01/10 | Alexander Shevchenko Asian Games |
2-1 | 15-8 | W |
| 29/09 | Kairan Thompson Asian Games |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 23/09 | Taro Daniel ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 22/09 | Arthur Weber ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 15/09 | Lloyd Harris Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
1-2 | 18-20 | L |
| 07/09 | Jake Delaney Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 18-16 | L |
| 01/09 | Enzo Aguiard Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Aleksandar Vukic
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10 | Pavel Kotov ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 05/10 | Jie Cui ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 18-18 | W |
| 28/09 | Ryan Seggerman Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 23/09 | Kyrian Jacquet ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 31/08 | Rei Sakamoto US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 25-27 | L |
| 20/08 | Stefanos Sakellaridis Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 20/08 | Kyrian Jacquet Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 13/08 | Mark Lajal ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 13/08 | Darwin Blanch ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 04/08 | Daniel Altmaier ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hayato Matsuoka vs Aleksandar Vukic?
Our model gives 51% to Aleksandar Vukic, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.