Tennis · Challenger Jinan · 14/10, 05:00
Prediction: Liam Draxl vs James Duckworth
Team pages: Liam Draxl · James Duckworth
Prediction summary
Winner
Liam Draxl
James Duckworth
Estimated games
24.2
Recent form · 10 last
Liam Draxl
8-2 (W-L)
James Duckworth
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Liam Draxl 1572 · James Duckworth 1495
| Liam Draxl | James Duckworth | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 39% |
| Market | 41% | 59% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Liam Draxl (rating 1572 vs 1495).
- Liam Draxl dominates on serve: 7.9 aces and 53.3% break avg.
- Note: James Duckworth makes many double faults (4.1/match).
Statistics
| Liam Draxl | James Duckworth | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 67% (9) | 56% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.8 | 1.3-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.7-11.4 | 13.4-12.4 |
| Aces | 7.9 | 7.3 |
| Double faults | 2.1 | 4.1 |
| 1st serve % | 72.2% | 73.7% |
| Break % | 53.3% | 30.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Liam Draxl
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10 | Omar Jasika Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 11/10 | Yutong Du Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 06/10 | Nikoloz Basilashvili ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 05/10 | Hugo Gaston ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 23/09 | Henry Searle Challenger San Diego · Hard |
1-2 | 16-15 | L |
| 22/09 | Jack Kennedy Challenger San Diego · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 18/09 | Arthur Rinderknech Davis Cup |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 28/08 | Tristan Schoolkate US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 26/08 | Andrew Johnson US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 26/08 | Nicolas Mejia US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
James Duckworth
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 24/09 | Lorenzo Sonego ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 19/09 | Kamil Majchrzak Davis Cup |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 03/09 | Yibing Wu US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 9-19 | L |
| 31/08 | Matteo Arnaldi US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 24-18 | W |
| 28/08 | Fabian Marozsan ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 27/08 | Lorenzo Sonego ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 25/08 | Mariano Navone ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 24/08 | Quinn Vandecasteele ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 15/08 | Arthur Fery ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 16-15 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Liam Draxl vs James Duckworth?
Our model gives 50% to Liam Draxl, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.