Tennis · Challenger Olbia · 14/10, 10:00
Prediction: Jacob Fearnley vs George Loffhagen
Team pages: Jacob Fearnley · George Loffhagen
Prediction summary
Winner
Jacob Fearnley
George Loffhagen
Estimated games
22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Jacob Fearnley
6-4 (W-L)
George Loffhagen
9-1 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jacob Fearnley 1544 · George Loffhagen 1617
| Jacob Fearnley | George Loffhagen | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 59% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours George Loffhagen (rating 1544 vs 1617).
- George Loffhagen dominates on serve: 7.6 aces and 49.8% break avg.
- George Loffhagen is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Note: Jacob Fearnley makes many double faults (6.8/match).
Statistics
| Jacob Fearnley | George Loffhagen | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 90% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 89% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-1.2 | 1.8-0.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 14-12.7 | 13-7.7 |
| Aces | 4.5 | 7.6 |
| Double faults | 6.8 | 2.6 |
| 1st serve % | 71.4% | 80.4% |
| Break % | 43.2% | 49.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jacob Fearnley
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/09 | Alejo Sanchez Quilez Challenger Porto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 02/09 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 15-21 | L |
| 31/08 | Martin Landaluce US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 27-22 | W |
| 28/08 | Jurij Rodionov US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 26/08 | Luka Pavlovic US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 24/08 | Roberto Carballes Baena US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 22/08 | Taro Daniel Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 21/08 | Alexis Galarneau Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 20/08 | Mackenzie McDonald Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 13/08 | Nicolas Mejia ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
George Loffhagen
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10 | Laurent Lokoli Challenger Olbia · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 11/10 | Filip Pieczonka Challenger Olbia · Hard |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 29/08 | Charles Broom Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 28/08 | Michele Ribecai Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 27/08 | Inaki Montes-De La Torre Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 26/08 | Ivan Ivanov Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 25/08 | Alastair Gray Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 06/08 | Mark Ceban M25 Roehampton · ~Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 05/08 | Giulio Perego M25 Roehampton · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 10/05 | Sebastian Sorger Challenger Zagreb · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jacob Fearnley vs George Loffhagen?
Our model gives 50% to Jacob Fearnley, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.