Tennis · M25 Santa Margherita · 12/10, 09:30
Prediction: Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes vs Alexander Chang
Team pages: Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes · Alexander Chang
Prediction summary
Winner
Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes
Alexander Chang
Estimated games
23.4
Recent form · 10 last
Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes
6-4 (W-L)
Alexander Chang
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes 1469 · Alexander Chang 1549
| Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes | Alexander Chang | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 61% |
| Market | 61% | 39% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alexander Chang (rating 1469 vs 1549).
- Alexander Chang is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes | Alexander Chang | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 0% (3) | 50% (2) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.3 | 1.5-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12-11.5 | 13.2-11.2 |
| Aces | 1.1 | 7.1 |
| Double faults | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| 1st serve % | 62.5% | 72.9% |
| Break % | 50.9% | 34.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10 | Giorgio Tabacco M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 27/09 | Svyatoslav Gulin Challenger Bari · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 18/08 | Rio Noguchi Challenger Cancun · Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 16/08 | Karl Poling M25 East Lansing |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 15/08 | Max Sheldon M25 East Lansing |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 14/08 | Tyler Bowers M25 East Lansing |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 13/08 | Noah Zamora M25 East Lansing |
2-1 | 16-8 | W |
| 12/08 | Simon Caldwell M25 East Lansing |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 26/07 | Edward Winter ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 08/07 | Juan Pablo Varillas Challenger Bogota · Clay |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
Alexander Chang
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/10 | Rares Teodor Pieleanu M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
1-2 | 11-17 | L |
| 06/10 | Filippo Alfano M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 13/09 | Karan Singh M15 Bali |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 12/09 | Nathan Anthony Barki M15 Bali |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 11/09 | Pablo Perez Ramos M15 Bali |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 10/09 | Leo Borg M15 Bali |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 08/09 | Reece Falck M15 Bali |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 01/09 | Leo Borg M15 Bali |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 23/08 | Mathieu Perchicot ITF M25 Bali · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 22/08 | Anthony Susanto ITF M25 Bali · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes vs Alexander Chang?
Our model gives 51% to Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.