Tennis · Challenger Olbia · 12/10, 11:30
Prediction: Mathys Erhard vs Leo Raquillet
Team pages: Mathys Erhard · Leo Raquillet
Prediction summary
Winner
Mathys Erhard
Leo Raquillet
Estimated games
22.9
Recent form · 10 last
Mathys Erhard
8-2 (W-L)
Leo Raquillet
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Mathys Erhard
1–0
Leo Raquillet
(1 last)
- 25 Apr2-0 12-5W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mathys Erhard 1528 · Leo Raquillet 1487
| Mathys Erhard | Leo Raquillet | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 72% | 28% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mathys Erhard (rating 1528 vs 1487).
- Mathys Erhard dominates on serve: 8.8 aces and 41.1% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Mathys Erhard 1–0 Leo Raquillet (1).
Statistics
| Mathys Erhard | Leo Raquillet | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (10) | 40% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.1 | 1.2-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.3-11.7 | 11.6-11.5 |
| Aces | 8.8 | 2 |
| Double faults | 2.8 | 2.9 |
| 1st serve % | 76.6% | 65.9% |
| Break % | 41.1% | 59.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.9
H2H · Mathys Erhard 1 – 0 Leo Raquillet (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Mathys Erhard 1–0 Leo Raquillet
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/24 M25 Angers | 2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mathys Erhard
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Lorenzo Rocco Challenger Olbia · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 04/10 | Oliver Tarvet Challenger Villena · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 28/09 | Alberto Barroso Campos Challenger Mouilleron le Captif · Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 27/09 | Paul Theate Challenger Mouilleron le Captif · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 20/09 | Patrick Zahraj Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 08/09 | Benjamin Pietri Challenger Cassis · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 02/09 | Inaki Montes-De La Torre Challenger Manacor · Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 01/09 | Charles Broom Challenger Manacor · Hard |
2-1 | 18-10 | W |
| 31/08 | Anton Shepp Challenger Manacor · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 08/08 | Joel Schwaerzler Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
Leo Raquillet
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Gabi Adrian Boitan Challenger Olbia · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 15/09 | Yanis Ghazouani Durand Challenger Rennes · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 07/09 | Yanis Ghazouani Durand Challenger Cassis · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 06/09 | Matteo Covato Challenger Cassis · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 27/08 | Lenny Couturier M15 Cap d'Agde |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 25/08 | Matis Roche M15 Cap d'Agde |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 17/08 | Benjamin Hassan Challenger Sion · Clay |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 16/08 | Adrien Berrut Challenger Sion · Clay |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 02/08 | Oskari Paldanius Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 26/07 | Georgii Kravchenko Challenger Liberec · Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mathys Erhard vs Leo Raquillet?
Our model gives 65% to Mathys Erhard, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.