Tennis · Challenger Olbia · 13/10, 10:00
Prediction: Luca Nardi vs August Holmgren
Team pages: Luca Nardi · August Holmgren
Prediction summary
Winner
Luca Nardi
August Holmgren
Estimated games
23.8
Recent form · 10 last
Luca Nardi
5-5 (W-L)
August Holmgren
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Luca Nardi
2–0
August Holmgren
(2 last)
- 07 Nov2-0 14-12W
- 16 Nov2-1 16-14W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Luca Nardi 1470 · August Holmgren 1466
| Luca Nardi | August Holmgren | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 49% |
| Market | 41% | 59% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Luca Nardi 2–0 August Holmgren (2).
- Note: August Holmgren makes many double faults (4.4/match).
Statistics
| Luca Nardi | August Holmgren | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 0% (1) | 30% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.3 | 1-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.4-12 | 13-13.4 |
| Aces | 3.5 | 6.4 |
| Double faults | 3.4 | 4.4 |
| 1st serve % | 69.4% | 74.3% |
| Break % | 45.3% | 39.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.8
H2H · Luca Nardi 2 – 0 August Holmgren (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Luca Nardi 2–0 August Holmgren
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11/24 Challenger Helsinki | 2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 16/11/23 Challenger Kobe | 2-1 | 16-14 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Luca Nardi
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10 | Pablo Llamas Ruiz Challenger Villena · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 11/07 | Andrea Guerrieri ATP Umag · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 24/06 | Otto Virtanen Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Rio Noguchi Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 15/06 | Remy Bertola Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
1-2 | 18-17 | L |
| 14/06 | Giles Hussey Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 13/06 | Oscar Weightman Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 10/06 | Jacob Fearnley Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
1-2 | 9-16 | L |
| 04/06 | Remy Bertola Challenger Perugia · Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 02/06 | Oriol Roca Batalla Challenger Perugia · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
August Holmgren
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10 | Pedro Martinez Challenger Villena · Hard |
1-2 | 17-16 | L |
| 02/10 | Henrique Rocha Challenger Porto · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 01/10 | Andrea Guerrieri Challenger Porto · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 28/09 | Benjamin Bonzi Challenger Porto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 07/09 | Vadym Ursu Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 01/09 | Felix Balshaw Challenger Manacor · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 24/08 | Andrea Guerrieri US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 29/07 | Braden Shick Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 24/07 | Liam Draxl Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
1-2 | 15-14 | L |
| 22/07 | Garrett Johns Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Luca Nardi vs August Holmgren?
Our model gives 55% to August Holmgren, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.