Tennis · Challenger Olbia · 13/10, 10:00
Prediction: Mili Poljicak vs Francesco Maestrelli
Team pages: Mili Poljicak · Francesco Maestrelli
Prediction summary
Winner
Mili Poljicak
Francesco Maestrelli
Estimated games
21.9
Recent form · 10 last
Mili Poljicak
4-6 (W-L)
Francesco Maestrelli
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mili Poljicak 1470 · Francesco Maestrelli 1476
| Mili Poljicak | Francesco Maestrelli | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 51% |
| Market | 39% | 61% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Francesco Maestrelli dominates on serve: 7 aces and 50.6% break avg.
Statistics
| Mili Poljicak | Francesco Maestrelli | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (4) | 40% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.7-1.5 | 1.2-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 8.7-11.4 | 11.7-13.2 |
| Aces | 5.7 | 7 |
| Double faults | 2 | 2.3 |
| 1st serve % | 68.6% | 68.5% |
| Break % | 25.9% | 50.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mili Poljicak
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10 | Max Hans Rehberg Challenger Villena · Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 04/10 | Patrick Brady Challenger Villena · Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 01/10 | Henrique Rocha Challenger Porto · Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 28/09 | Max Basing Challenger Porto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 07/09 | Stefanos Sakellaridis Challenger Genoa · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 31/08 | Matej Dodig Challenger Como · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 24/08 | Max Schoenhaus Challenger Augsburg · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 20/08 | Sebastian Dominko M25 Slovenj Gradec |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 18/08 | Vaal Urankar M25 Slovenj Gradec |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 02/08 | Facundo Diaz Acosta Challenger San Marino · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Francesco Maestrelli
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/10 | Oliver Tarvet Challenger Villena · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 21/09 | Andrea Guerrieri Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 18/09 | Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg Challenger Rennes · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 17/09 | Yanis Ghazouani Durand Challenger Rennes · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 16/09 | Arthur Nagel Challenger Rennes · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 11/09 | Maks Kasnikowski Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
1-2 | 7-14 | L |
| 09/09 | Alafia Ayeni Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 08/09 | Juan Pablo Ficovich Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 24/08 | Toby Samuel US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 19/08 | Alexei Popyrin Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mili Poljicak vs Francesco Maestrelli?
Our model gives 56% to Francesco Maestrelli, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.