Tennis · Challenger Jinan · 12/10, 08:30
Prediction: Kaito Uesugi vs Yosuke Watanuki
Team pages: Yosuke Watanuki
Prediction summary
Winner
Kaito Uesugi
Yosuke Watanuki
Estimated games
21.6
Recent form · 10 last
Kaito Uesugi
6-4 (W-L)
Yosuke Watanuki
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Kaito Uesugi 1452 · Yosuke Watanuki 1496
| Kaito Uesugi | Yosuke Watanuki | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 12% | 88% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Yosuke Watanuki (rating 1452 vs 1496).
- Yosuke Watanuki dominates on serve: 7.1 aces and 43.9% break avg.
- Note: Kaito Uesugi makes many double faults (4.1/match).
Statistics
| Kaito Uesugi | Yosuke Watanuki | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 25% (8) | 44% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.5 | 1.2-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.7-12.5 | 10.8-10 |
| Aces | 4.1 | 7.1 |
| Double faults | 4.1 | 2.9 |
| 1st serve % | 66.2% | 76% |
| Break % | 38.2% | 43.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Kaito Uesugi
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Yuquan Jin Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 11/10 | Yuquan Jin Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 13/09 | Alexandr Binda Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 07/09 | Ji Sung Nam Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 30/08 | Koki Matsuda Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 22/06 | Luca Potenza Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 21/06 | Maxime Janvier Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 16/11 | Yuta Kikuchi Challenger Yokohama · Hard |
1-2 | 10-12 | L |
| 02/11 | Uisung Park Challenger Taipei · Hard |
1-2 | 10-18 | L |
| 26/10 | Masamichi Imamura Challenger Seoul · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Yosuke Watanuki
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Semen Pankin Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 29/09 | Fares Alwazer Asian Games |
2-0 | 12-0 | W |
| 07/09 | Marat Sharipov Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 02/09 | Chun Hsin Tseng Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 31/08 | Semen Pankin Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 29/07 | Hayato Matsuoka Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 23/07 | Toby Samuel Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 21/07 | Andre Ilagan Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 14/07 | August Holmgren Challenger Granby · Hard |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
| 03/07 | Jack Kennedy Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Kaito Uesugi vs Yosuke Watanuki?
Our model gives 73% to Yosuke Watanuki, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.