Tennis · Challenger Jinan · 12/10, 06:00
Prediction: Ilya Ivashka vs Kaichi Uchida
Team pages: Ilya Ivashka · Kaichi Uchida
Prediction summary
Winner
Ilya Ivashka
Kaichi Uchida
Estimated games
21.9
Recent form · 10 last
Ilya Ivashka
7-3 (W-L)
Kaichi Uchida
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Ilya Ivashka
1–0
Kaichi Uchida
(1 last)
- 02 Oct2-0 12-5W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ilya Ivashka 1594 · Kaichi Uchida 1439
| Ilya Ivashka | Kaichi Uchida | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 71% | 29% |
| Market | 87% | 13% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ilya Ivashka (rating 1594 vs 1439).
- Ilya Ivashka is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Ilya Ivashka 1–0 Kaichi Uchida (1).
Statistics
| Ilya Ivashka | Kaichi Uchida | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 20% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (10) | 22% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.8 | 0.7-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.2-10.3 | 9.1-12.4 |
| Aces | 4.6 | 5.7 |
| Double faults | 2.4 | 2.8 |
| 1st serve % | 79.3% | 68.7% |
| Break % | 41.4% | 33.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.9
H2H · Ilya Ivashka 1 – 0 Kaichi Uchida (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ilya Ivashka 1–0 Kaichi Uchida
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/10/19 Challenger Nur-Sultan 2 | 2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ilya Ivashka
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Beibit Zhukayev Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 13/09 | Marat Sharipov Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 12/09 | Luca Castelnuovo Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 11/09 | Yi Zhou Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 10/09 | Bernard Tomic Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 08/09 | Yu Hsiou Hsu Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 04/09 | Ilia Simakin Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 03/09 | Akira Santillan Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 01/09 | Yi Zhou Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 07/08 | Joel Schwaerzler Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Kaichi Uchida
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Jesse Delaney Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 08/10 | Ryan Seggerman Challenger Wuning · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 06/10 | Masamichi Imamura Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 22/09 | Federico Cina ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 14/09 | Rio Noguchi Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 07/09 | Linang Xiao Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 31/08 | Hanyi Liu Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 26/08 | Tianhui Zhang M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 14/07 | Alexis Galarneau Challenger Granby · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 08/07 | Daniel Milavsky Challenger Newport · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ilya Ivashka vs Kaichi Uchida?
Our model gives 80% to Ilya Ivashka, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.