Tennis · Challenger Jinan · 12/10, 06:00
Prediction: Hayato Matsuoka vs James McCabe
Team pages: Hayato Matsuoka · James McCabe
Prediction summary
Winner
Hayato Matsuoka
James McCabe
Estimated games
23.2
Recent form · 10 last
Hayato Matsuoka
5-5 (W-L)
James McCabe
2-8 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Hayato Matsuoka
2–0
James McCabe
(2 last)
- 26 Mar2-0 13-9W
- 22 Nov2-0 13-9W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hayato Matsuoka 1527 · James McCabe 1386
| Hayato Matsuoka | James McCabe | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 69% | 31% |
| Market | 58% | 42% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hayato Matsuoka (rating 1527 vs 1386).
- Hayato Matsuoka is in better form: 50% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Hayato Matsuoka 2–0 James McCabe (2).
Statistics
| Hayato Matsuoka | James McCabe | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 10% |
| Win % · Hard | 43% (7) | 14% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.3 | 0.5-1.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 13-12.3 | 10.6-13.9 |
| Aces | 4.4 | 6.4 |
| Double faults | 2.6 | 2.6 |
| 1st serve % | 74% | 67.6% |
| Break % | 42.6% | 16.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.2
H2H · Hayato Matsuoka 2 – 0 James McCabe (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Hayato Matsuoka 2–0 James McCabe
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/03/26 Challenger Yokkaichi | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 22/11/25 Challenger Sydney | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hayato Matsuoka
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Qian Sun Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 02/10 | Yibing Wu Asian Games |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 01/10 | Alexander Shevchenko Asian Games |
2-1 | 15-8 | W |
| 29/09 | Kairan Thompson Asian Games |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 23/09 | Taro Daniel ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 22/09 | Arthur Weber ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 15/09 | Lloyd Harris Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
1-2 | 18-20 | L |
| 07/09 | Jake Delaney Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 18-16 | L |
| 01/09 | Enzo Aguiard Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 16/08 | Mohamed Aziz Dougaz Challenger Astana · Hard |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
James McCabe
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/09 | Federico Cina Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 24/08 | Lukas Neumayer US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 12/08 | Noah Zamora M25 East Lansing |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 04/08 | Dusan Lajovic Challenger Lexington · Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 25/07 | Alex Bolt ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 21/07 | Duncan Chan Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 16/07 | Bernard Tomic Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 15/07 | Masamichi Imamura Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 08/07 | Jason Jung Challenger Newport · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Roman Safiullin Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hayato Matsuoka vs James McCabe?
Our model gives 63% to Hayato Matsuoka, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.