Tennis · M25 Santa Margherita · 11/10, 10:00

Prediction: Daniel Michalski vs Alexander Weis

Team pages: Daniel Michalski · Alexander Weis

Prediction summary

Winner

70% 30%

Daniel Michalski Alexander Weis

Estimated games

20.2

Recent form · 10 last

Daniel Michalski 9-1 (W-L)

LWWWWWWWWW

Alexander Weis 7-3 (W-L)

LLWWWLWWWW

Head-to-head

Daniel Michalski 2–1 Alexander Weis (3 last)

19 Nov0-2 3-12L
21 Oct2-0 12-5W
31 Mar2-0 12-4W

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Daniel Michalski 1638 · Alexander Weis 1548

	Daniel Michalski	Alexander Weis
Our model	63%	37%
Market	77%	23%

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Match keys

Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Daniel Michalski (rating 1638 vs 1548).
Daniel Michalski is in better form: 90% recent wins.
Head-to-head: Daniel Michalski 2–1 Alexander Weis (3).

Statistics

	Daniel Michalski	Alexander Weis
Win %	90%	60%
Win % · Clay	90% (10)	67% (9)
Sets (G-P)	1.8-0.3	1.3-1
Games (G-P)	12.2-6.6	9.9-10
Aces	1.4	1.1
Double faults	2.3	1.8
1st serve %	66.7%	62.2%
Break %	54.8%	49.7%

Estimated total games (ours) 20.2

H2H · Daniel Michalski 2 – 1 Alexander Weis (3)

Odds Bet365

11.22

24.00

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 02:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.20 → 1.22▲	Bet365 1.22
2	4.33 → 4.00▼	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 6.8%

Time*	1	2
21:31 +3’	1.20	4.33
02:23 +9’	1.22▲	4.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Daniel Michalski 2–1 Alexander Weis

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Date	Sets	Games	Res.
19/11/22 M15 Antalya	0-2	3-12	L
21/10/22 M25 Santa Margherita	2-0	12-5	W
31/03/21 M15 Antalya	2-0	12-4	W

Last 10 matches played

Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Daniel Michalski

WWWWW

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Date	Opponent	Sets	Games	Res.
10/10	Ivan Ivanov M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay	2-1	16-8	W
09/10	Giovanni Oradini M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay	2-0	12-5	W
08/10	Alessandro Bellifemine M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay	2-0	12-2	W
07/10	Lorenzo Bocchi M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay	2-0	12-1	W
26/09	Laurent Lokoli M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay	2-0	13-8	W
25/09	Eric Vanshelboim M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay	2-0	13-7	W
24/09	Lorenzo Carboni M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay	2-0	12-6	W
23/09	Giacomo Crisostomo M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay	2-0	14-11	W
22/09	Lorenzo Beraldo M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay	2-0	12-6	W
15/09	Marvin Moeller Challenger Szczecin · Clay	0-2	6-12	L

Alexander Weis

LWWWW

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Date	Opponent	Sets	Games	Res.
10/10	Andrey Chepelev M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay	2-1	15-12	W
09/10	Gabriele Crivellaro M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay	2-0	12-4	W
08/10	Rares Teodor Pieleanu M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay	2-0	13-10	W
07/10	Fausto Tabacco M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay	2-1	12-13	W
20/09	Nikita Mashtakov Challenger Plovdiv · Clay	0-2	4-12	L
17/09	Max Hans Rehberg M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay	1-2	10-15	L
16/09	Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay	2-0	12-7	W
15/09	Filippo Mazzola M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay	2-0	12-5	W
06/09	Federico Iannaccone Challenger Genoa · Clay	0-2	7-12	L
27/08	Adrien Burdet M25 Lausanne	0-2	2-10	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Daniel Michalski vs Alexander Weis?

Our model gives 70% to Daniel Michalski, using surface Elo on clay.

What is the prediction based on?

On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.