Tennis · Challenger Jinan · 13/10, 06:00
Prediction: Tomas Machac vs Alexandre Muller
Team pages: Tomas Machac · Alexandre Muller
Prediction summary
Winner
Tomas Machac
Alexandre Muller
Estimated games
21.8
Recent form · 10 last
Tomas Machac
2-8 (W-L)
Alexandre Muller
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Tomas Machac
1–1
Alexandre Muller
(2 last)
- 09 Sept2-1 16-15W
- 19 Feb1-2 13-17L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tomas Machac 1439 · Alexandre Muller 1521
| Tomas Machac | Alexandre Muller | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 62% |
| Market | 69% | 31% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alexandre Muller (rating 1439 vs 1521).
- Alexandre Muller is in better form: 60% recent wins.
Statistics
| Tomas Machac | Alexandre Muller | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 25% (8) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.7-1.8 | 1.2-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.1-14 | 10.5-9.9 |
| Aces | 4.5 | 4.6 |
| Double faults | 2.1 | 1.9 |
| 1st serve % | 64.8% | 73.4% |
| Break % | 30.2% | 30.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.8
H2H · Tomas Machac 1 – 1 Alexandre Muller (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Tomas Machac 1–1 Alexandre Muller
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/09/23 Challenger Cassis | 2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 19/02/23 ATP Doha | 1-2 | 13-17 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tomas Machac
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10 | Alexander Bublik ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 07/10 | Zhizhen Zhang ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 01/10 | Alex Molcan ATP Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 29/09 | Arthur Gea ATP Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 28/09 | Yannick Hanfmann ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 30/08 | Toby Samuel US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 7-18 | L |
| 26/08 | Mees Rottgering ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 14/08 | Pablo Carreno Busta ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 27/05 | Alexander Zverev French Open · Clay |
0-3 | 8-18 | L |
| 24/05 | Zizou Bergs French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 18-11 | W |
Alexandre Muller
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10 | Mattia Bellucci ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 05/10 | Rio Noguchi ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 30/09 | Mattia Bellucci Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 27/09 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 26/09 | Federico Cina ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 24/09 | Moise Kouame ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 23/09 | Petr Bar Biryukov ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 22/09 | Luka Pavlovic ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 03/09 | Felix Balshaw Challenger Manacor · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 02/09 | Ziga Sesko Challenger Manacor · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tomas Machac vs Alexandre Muller?
Our model gives 55% to Tomas Machac, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.