Tennis · Challenger Jinan · 13/10, 06:00
Prediction: Adam Walton vs Marin Cilic
Team pages: Adam Walton · Marin Cilic
Prediction summary
Winner
Adam Walton
Marin Cilic
Estimated games
22.7
Recent form · 10 last
Adam Walton
6-4 (W-L)
Marin Cilic
3-7 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Adam Walton
0–1
Marin Cilic
(1 last)
- 18 Oct0-2 5-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Adam Walton 1466 · Marin Cilic 1464
| Adam Walton | Marin Cilic | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 50% |
| Market | 44% | 56% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Adam Walton dominates on serve: 7.1 aces and 41.4% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Adam Walton 0–1 Marin Cilic (1).
Statistics
| Adam Walton | Marin Cilic | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 40% (10) | 25% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.3 | 0.9-1.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.7-11.2 | 10.7-14.8 |
| Aces | 7.1 | 6.2 |
| Double faults | 1.1 | 3 |
| 1st serve % | 70.5% | 69.8% |
| Break % | 41.4% | 36.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.7
H2H · Adam Walton 0 – 1 Marin Cilic (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Adam Walton 0–1 Marin Cilic
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10/25 ATP Basel | 0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Adam Walton
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10 | Rigele Te ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 01/10 | Mattia Bellucci Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 30/09 | Moise Kouame Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/09 | Alexandr Binda Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 28/09 | Hikaru Shiraishi Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 23/09 | Valentin Royer ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 30/08 | Yibing Wu US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 13-20 | L |
| 25/08 | Ignacio Buse ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 24/08 | Jesper De Jong ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 18/08 | Jaime Faria ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
Marin Cilic
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/10 | Arthur Fery ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 15/08 | Daniel Merida Aguilar ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 8-15 | L |
| 05/08 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 11-17 | L |
| 04/08 | Sho Shimabukuro ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 29/06 | Daniil Medvedev Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 7-18 | L |
| 16/06 | Ugo Humbert ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 13/06 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 12/06 | Nuno Borges ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 08/06 | Denis Shapovalov ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 26/05 | Moise Kouame French Open · Clay |
0-3 | 9-19 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Adam Walton vs Marin Cilic?
Our model gives 53% to Marin Cilic, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.