Tennis · Challenger Jinan · 13/10, 06:00
Prediction: Facundo Diaz Acosta vs Shintaro Mochizuki
Team pages: Facundo Diaz Acosta · Shintaro Mochizuki
Prediction summary
Winner
Facundo Diaz Acosta
Shintaro Mochizuki
Estimated games
21.9
Recent form · 10 last
Facundo Diaz Acosta
7-3 (W-L)
Shintaro Mochizuki
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Facundo Diaz Acosta 1534 · Shintaro Mochizuki 1473
| Facundo Diaz Acosta | Shintaro Mochizuki | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 41% |
| Market | 59% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Facundo Diaz Acosta (rating 1534 vs 1473).
- Facundo Diaz Acosta is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Shintaro Mochizuki makes many double faults (4.3/match).
Statistics
| Facundo Diaz Acosta | Shintaro Mochizuki | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 0% (2) | 40% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.9 | 0.8-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 13-10.7 | 9.6-11.9 |
| Aces | 3 | 2.2 |
| Double faults | 1.6 | 4.3 |
| 1st serve % | 69.8% | 69.3% |
| Break % | 43.7% | 48.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Facundo Diaz Acosta
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10 | Nuno Borges ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 15/09 | Daniel Elahi Galan Challenger Szczecin · Clay |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 13/09 | Dusan Lajovic Challenger Seville · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 12/09 | Jaume Munar Challenger Seville · Clay |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 11/09 | Sebastian Ofner Challenger Seville · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 09/09 | Alejandro Moro Canas Challenger Seville · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 07/09 | Pol Martin Tiffon Challenger Seville · Clay |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 01/09 | Quentin Halys US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 17-25 | L |
| 02/08 | Mili Poljicak Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/08 | Vilius Gaubas Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Shintaro Mochizuki
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10 | Roman Safiullin ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 05/10 | Taro Daniel ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 14-10 | W |
| 28/09 | Jaime Faria ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 24/09 | Martin Damm ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 23/09 | Pavel Kotov ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 22/09 | Linang Xiao ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 15/09 | Pavel Kotov Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 01/09 | Jakub Mensik US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 10-19 | L |
| 28/08 | Francesco Passaro US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 26/08 | Braden Shick US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Facundo Diaz Acosta vs Shintaro Mochizuki?
Our model gives 59% to Facundo Diaz Acosta, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.