Tennis · Challenger Jinan · 13/10, 06:00
Prediction: Elias Ymer vs Mattia Bellucci
Team pages: Elias Ymer · Mattia Bellucci
Prediction summary
Winner
Elias Ymer
Mattia Bellucci
Estimated games
23
Recent form · 10 last
Elias Ymer
5-5 (W-L)
Mattia Bellucci
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Elias Ymer
1–2
Mattia Bellucci
(3 last)
- 05 Oct1-2 17-18L
- 10 Aug0-2 10-14L
- 05 Oct2-1 16-15W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Elias Ymer 1444 · Mattia Bellucci 1555
| Elias Ymer | Mattia Bellucci | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 65% |
| Market | 17% | 83% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mattia Bellucci (rating 1444 vs 1555).
- Elias Ymer dominates on serve: 7.8 aces and 41.7% break avg.
- Mattia Bellucci is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Elias Ymer 1–2 Mattia Bellucci (3).
Statistics
| Elias Ymer | Mattia Bellucci | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 30% (10) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.5 | 1.6-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.3-13.3 | 12.9-9.3 |
| Aces | 7.8 | 7.2 |
| Double faults | 3.3 | 1.6 |
| 1st serve % | 68.9% | 80% |
| Break % | 41.7% | 36.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23
H2H · Elias Ymer 1 – 2 Mattia Bellucci (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Elias Ymer 1–2 Mattia Bellucci
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10/26 ATP Shanghai | 1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 10/08/24 Challenger Cary | 0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 05/10/23 Challenger Alicante | 2-1 | 16-15 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Elias Ymer
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10 | Mattia Bellucci ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 02/10 | Federico Cina Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 22/09 | Alexis Galarneau ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 18/09 | Marat Sharipov Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 16/09 | Luca Castelnuovo Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 14/09 | Semen Pankin Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 08/09 | Pavel Kotov Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 26/08 | Cristian Garin US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 24/08 | Franco Roncadelli US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 19/08 | Daniil Glinka Challenger Kingston · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Mattia Bellucci
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/10 | Yi Zhou ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 06/10 | Alexandre Muller ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 05/10 | Elias Ymer ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 04/10 | Lloyd Harris Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
1-2 | 15-14 | L |
| 03/10 | Yanki Erel Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 01/10 | Adam Walton Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 30/09 | Alexandre Muller Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 29/09 | Keisuke Saitoh Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 28/09 | Filip Peliwo Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 24/09 | Kamil Majchrzak ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Elias Ymer vs Mattia Bellucci?
Our model gives 75% to Mattia Bellucci, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.