Tennis · Challenger Jinan · 11/10, 06:00
Prediction: Hayato Matsuoka vs Qian Sun
Team pages: Hayato Matsuoka · Qian Sun
Prediction summary
Winner
Hayato Matsuoka
Qian Sun
Estimated games
23.2
Recent form · 10 last
Hayato Matsuoka
4-6 (W-L)
Qian Sun
2-8 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Hayato Matsuoka
2–0
Qian Sun
(2 last)
- 03 May2-1 14-14W
- 30 Oct2-0 12-6W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hayato Matsuoka 1521 · Qian Sun 1499
| Hayato Matsuoka | Qian Sun | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 47% |
| Market | 87% | 13% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Hayato Matsuoka 2–0 Qian Sun (2).
- Note: Qian Sun makes many double faults (4/match).
Statistics
| Hayato Matsuoka | Qian Sun | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 43% (7) | 63% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.3 | 1.4-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.7-12.3 | 12.8-11.8 |
| Aces | 4.4 | 5.8 |
| Double faults | 2.7 | 4 |
| 1st serve % | 75% | 69.4% |
| Break % | 44.4% | 53.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.2
H2H · Hayato Matsuoka 2 – 0 Qian Sun (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Hayato Matsuoka 2–0 Qian Sun
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/26 Challenger Wuxi | 2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 30/10/25 ITF M25 Qian Daohu | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hayato Matsuoka
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/10 | Yibing Wu Asian Games |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 01/10 | Alexander Shevchenko Asian Games |
2-1 | 15-8 | W |
| 29/09 | Kairan Thompson Asian Games |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 23/09 | Taro Daniel ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 22/09 | Arthur Weber ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 15/09 | Lloyd Harris Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
1-2 | 18-20 | L |
| 07/09 | Jake Delaney Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 18-16 | L |
| 01/09 | Enzo Aguiard Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 16/08 | Mohamed Aziz Dougaz Challenger Astana · Hard |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 15/08 | Khumoyun Sultanov Challenger Astana · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
Qian Sun
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/10 | Nino Ehrenschneider M25 Luan · ~Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 17/09 | Alibek Kachmazov M25 Guiyang |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 16/09 | Lachlan Vickery M25 Guiyang |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 06/09 | Yuta Tomida M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 05/09 | Colin Sinclair M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 04/09 | Miles Jones M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 03/09 | Hiromasa Koyama M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 02/09 | Ammar Faleh Alhogbani M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
2-1 | 18-9 | W |
| 27/08 | Fumin Jiang M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 26/08 | Petr Bar Biryukov M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hayato Matsuoka vs Qian Sun?
Our model gives 72% to Hayato Matsuoka, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.