Tennis · Challenger Jinan · 11/10, 07:30
Prediction: Ilya Ivashka vs Beibit Zhukayev
Team pages: Ilya Ivashka · Beibit Zhukayev
Prediction summary
Winner
Ilya Ivashka
Beibit Zhukayev
Estimated games
23.1
Recent form · 10 last
Ilya Ivashka
7-3 (W-L)
Beibit Zhukayev
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Ilya Ivashka
1–0
Beibit Zhukayev
(1 last)
- 02 Aug2-1 16-15W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ilya Ivashka 1586 · Beibit Zhukayev 1483
| Ilya Ivashka | Beibit Zhukayev | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 64% | 36% |
| Market | 77% | 23% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ilya Ivashka (rating 1586 vs 1483).
- Ilya Ivashka is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Ilya Ivashka 1–0 Beibit Zhukayev (1).
Statistics
| Ilya Ivashka | Beibit Zhukayev | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (10) | 50% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.9 | 1.1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.7-11 | 11.4-12.4 |
| Aces | 5.4 | 9.9 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 2.8 |
| 1st serve % | 78.1% | 74.8% |
| Break % | 40.8% | 28.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.1
H2H · Ilya Ivashka 1 – 0 Beibit Zhukayev (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ilya Ivashka 1–0 Beibit Zhukayev
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08/23 ATP Los Cabos | 2-1 | 16-15 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ilya Ivashka
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | Marat Sharipov Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 12/09 | Luca Castelnuovo Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 11/09 | Yi Zhou Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 10/09 | Bernard Tomic Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 08/09 | Yu Hsiou Hsu Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 04/09 | Ilia Simakin Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 03/09 | Akira Santillan Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 01/09 | Yi Zhou Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 07/08 | Joel Schwaerzler Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 04/08 | Ergi Kirkin Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
Beibit Zhukayev
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10 | Yaroslav Demin Challenger Wuning · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 12/08 | Mert Alkaya Challenger Astana · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 11/08 | Amir Omarkhanov Challenger Astana · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 26/04 | Yusuke Takahashi Challenger Jiujiang · Clay |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 21/04 | Liam Broady Challenger Gwangju · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 20/04 | Hiroki Moriya Challenger Gwangju · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 19/04 | Masamichi Imamura Challenger Gwangju · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 16/04 | Sho Shimabukuro Challenger Busan · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 14/04 | Uisung Park Challenger Busan · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 10/04 | James Duckworth Challenger Mexico City · Clay |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ilya Ivashka vs Beibit Zhukayev?
Our model gives 71% to Ilya Ivashka, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.