Tennis · Challenger Jinan · 11/10, 10:00
Prediction: Luka Pavlovic vs Thomas Fancutt
Team pages: Luka Pavlovic · Thomas Fancutt
Prediction summary
Winner
Luka Pavlovic
Thomas Fancutt
Estimated games
21.8
Recent form · 10 last
Luka Pavlovic
5-5 (W-L)
Thomas Fancutt
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Luka Pavlovic 1482 · Thomas Fancutt 1487
| Luka Pavlovic | Thomas Fancutt | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 51% |
| Market | 78% | 22% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Thomas Fancutt dominates on serve: 6.4 aces and 40.8% break avg.
- Note: Luka Pavlovic makes many double faults (4.1/match).
Statistics
| Luka Pavlovic | Thomas Fancutt | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 33% (9) | 50% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.5 | 1.1-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12-13.6 | 9.7-9.9 |
| Aces | 10.5 | 6.4 |
| Double faults | 4.1 | 3.2 |
| 1st serve % | 74% | 75.2% |
| Break % | 38.1% | 40.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Luka Pavlovic
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10 | Ilia Simakin ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 01/10 | Lloyd Harris Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 29/09 | Akira Santillan Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 22/09 | Alexandre Muller ATP Chengdu · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 16/09 | Hunter Heck Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 15/09 | Ha Minh Duc Vu Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 26/08 | Jacob Fearnley US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 24/08 | Juan Pablo Varillas US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 17/08 | Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves Challenger Cancun · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 28/07 | Vilius Gaubas Challenger San Marino · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
Thomas Fancutt
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09 | Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 15/09 | Marat Sharipov Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 14/09 | James Trotter Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 13/09 | Zijiang Yang Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 26/08 | Luis Guto Miguel Challenger Kingston · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 25/08 | Karl Poling Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 24/08 | Bruno Kuzuhara Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 23/08 | Enmanuel Munoz Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 13/08 | Karl Poling M25 East Lansing |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 11/08 | Lincoln Battle M25 East Lansing |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Luka Pavlovic vs Thomas Fancutt?
Our model gives 65% to Luka Pavlovic, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.