Tennis · Challenger Jinan · 11/10, 08:30
Prediction: Semen Pankin vs Yosuke Watanuki
Team pages: Semen Pankin · Yosuke Watanuki
Prediction summary
Winner
Semen Pankin
Yosuke Watanuki
Estimated games
21.8
Recent form · 10 last
Semen Pankin
4-6 (W-L)
Yosuke Watanuki
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Semen Pankin
0–1
Yosuke Watanuki
(1 last)
- 31 Aug0-2 8-13L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Semen Pankin 1433 · Yosuke Watanuki 1488
| Semen Pankin | Yosuke Watanuki | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 35% | 65% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Yosuke Watanuki (rating 1433 vs 1488).
- Head-to-head: Semen Pankin 0–1 Yosuke Watanuki (1).
Statistics
| Semen Pankin | Yosuke Watanuki | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 0% (5) | 44% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.7-1.5 | 1.2-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.1-12 | 11.4-11 |
| Aces | 6.3 | 9 |
| Double faults | 2.8 | 2.9 |
| 1st serve % | 71.1% | 76.4% |
| Break % | 28% | 38.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.8
H2H · Semen Pankin 0 – 1 Yosuke Watanuki (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Semen Pankin 0–1 Yosuke Watanuki
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/26 Challenger Zhangjiagang | 0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Semen Pankin
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10 | Marat Sharipov Challenger Wuning · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 29/09 | Alex Bolt Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 24/09 | Sheng Tang M25 Yinchuan |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 22/09 | Yaojie Zeng M25 Yinchuan |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 14/09 | Elias Ymer Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 07/09 | Alexis Galarneau Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 31/08 | Yosuke Watanuki Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 22/08 | Dimitar Kisimov M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 21/08 | Stefan Horia Haita M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 10-6 | W |
| 20/08 | Drazen Petrovic M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
Yosuke Watanuki
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/09 | Fares Alwazer Asian Games |
2-0 | 12-0 | W |
| 07/09 | Marat Sharipov Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 02/09 | Chun Hsin Tseng Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 31/08 | Semen Pankin Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 29/07 | Hayato Matsuoka Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 23/07 | Toby Samuel Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 21/07 | Andre Ilagan Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 14/07 | August Holmgren Challenger Granby · Hard |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
| 03/07 | Jack Kennedy Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/07 | Tung-Lin Wu Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Semen Pankin vs Yosuke Watanuki?
Our model gives 62% to Yosuke Watanuki, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.