Tennis · WTA Beijing · 10/10, 13:00
Prediction: Qinwen Zheng vs Elise Mertens
Team pages: Qinwen Zheng · Elise Mertens
Prediction summary
Winner
Qinwen Zheng
Elise Mertens
Estimated games
23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Qinwen Zheng
7-3 (W-L)
Elise Mertens
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Qinwen Zheng
1–0
Elise Mertens
(1 last)
- 03 Apr2-1 15-12W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Qinwen Zheng 1580 · Elise Mertens 1560
| Qinwen Zheng | Elise Mertens | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 47% |
| Market | 59% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Qinwen Zheng dominates on serve: 6.6 aces and 41.9% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Qinwen Zheng 1–0 Elise Mertens (1).
- Note: Qinwen Zheng makes many double faults (4.2/match).
Statistics
| Qinwen Zheng | Elise Mertens | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (10) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-1 | 1.6-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 14-12.5 | 12.6-10.5 |
| Aces | 6.6 | 4.5 |
| Double faults | 4.2 | 3.9 |
| 1st serve % | 77.2% | 72% |
| Break % | 41.9% | 36.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.5
H2H · Qinwen Zheng 1 – 0 Elise Mertens (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Qinwen Zheng 1–0 Elise Mertens
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/04/25 WTA Charleston | 2-1 | 15-12 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Qinwen Zheng
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10 | Elina Svitolina WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 07/10 | Alina Charaeva WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 05/10 | Marie Bouzkova WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 01/10 | Han Shi WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 24/09 | Jasmine Paolini Billie Jean King Cup · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 09/09 | Elena Rybakina US Open Women · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 07/09 | Iga Swiatek US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 05/09 | Madison Keys US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 15-17 | W |
| 03/09 | Yulia Putintseva US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 31/08 | Kristina Liutova US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
Elise Mertens
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10 | Iga Swiatek WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 07/10 | Coco Gauff WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 05/10 | Jelena Ostapenko WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 03/10 | Katie Volynets WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 25/09 | Maja Chwalinska WTA Singapore · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 06/09 | Naomi Osaka US Open Women · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 03/09 | Maria Timofeeva US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 01/09 | Kaitlin Quevedo US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 30/08 | Diane Parry WTA Monterrey · Hard |
1-2 | 13-12 | L |
| 29/08 | Nikola Bartunkova WTA Monterrey · Hard |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Qinwen Zheng vs Elise Mertens?
Our model gives 56% to Qinwen Zheng, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.