Tennis · WTA Beijing · 09/10, 05:00
Prediction: Elise Mertens vs Iga Swiatek
Team pages: Elise Mertens · Iga Swiatek
Prediction summary
Winner
Elise Mertens
Iga Swiatek
Estimated games
21.9
Recent form · 10 last
Elise Mertens
6-4 (W-L)
Iga Swiatek
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Elise Mertens
0–2
Iga Swiatek
(2 last)
- 23 Mar0-2 7-13L
- 18 Apr0-2 7-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Elise Mertens 1564 · Iga Swiatek 1596
| Elise Mertens | Iga Swiatek | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 55% |
| Market | 22% | 78% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Elise Mertens 0–2 Iga Swiatek (2).
- Note: Elise Mertens makes many double faults (4.1/match).
Statistics
| Elise Mertens | Iga Swiatek | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.9 | 1.7-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.5-10.1 | 13-8.9 |
| Aces | 4.7 | 1.6 |
| Double faults | 4.1 | 2.7 |
| 1st serve % | 72% | 69.8% |
| Break % | 37.3% | 50.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.9
H2H · Elise Mertens 0 – 2 Iga Swiatek (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Elise Mertens 0–2 Iga Swiatek
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/03/25 WTA Miami | 0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 18/04/24 WTA Stuttgart | 0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Elise Mertens
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/10 | Coco Gauff WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 05/10 | Jelena Ostapenko WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 03/10 | Katie Volynets WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 25/09 | Maja Chwalinska WTA Singapore · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 06/09 | Naomi Osaka US Open Women · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 03/09 | Maria Timofeeva US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 01/09 | Kaitlin Quevedo US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 30/08 | Diane Parry WTA Monterrey · Hard |
1-2 | 13-12 | L |
| 29/08 | Nikola Bartunkova WTA Monterrey · Hard |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 28/08 | Yulia Starodubtsewa WTA Monterrey · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Iga Swiatek
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/10 | Iva Jovic WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 05/10 | Donna Vekic WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 03/10 | Xinyu Gao WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 07/09 | Qinwen Zheng US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 05/09 | Marie Bouzkova US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 03/09 | Nadia Podoroska US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/09 | Xiyu Wang US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 22/08 | Jessica Pegula WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 19/08 | Diane Parry WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 17/08 | Maria Sakkari WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 16-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Elise Mertens vs Iga Swiatek?
Our model gives 67% to Iga Swiatek, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.