Tennis · WTA Beijing · 07/10, 05:00
Prediction: Coco Gauff vs Elise Mertens
Team pages: Coco Gauff · Elise Mertens
Prediction summary
Winner
Coco Gauff
Elise Mertens
Estimated games
22.4
Recent form · 10 last
Coco Gauff
9-1 (W-L)
Elise Mertens
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Coco Gauff
3–0
Elise Mertens
(3 last)
- 18 Feb2-1 15-15W
- 13 Mar2-0 12-2W
- 02 Sept2-1 15-9W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Coco Gauff 1636 · Elise Mertens 1540
| Coco Gauff | Elise Mertens | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 37% |
| Market | 79% | 21% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Coco Gauff (rating 1636 vs 1540).
- Head-to-head: Coco Gauff 3–0 Elise Mertens (3).
- Note: Coco Gauff makes many double faults (4.4/match).
- Note: Elise Mertens makes many double faults (4.5/match).
Statistics
| Coco Gauff | Elise Mertens | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 90% (10) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.9-0.4 | 1.6-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.2-8.9 | 12.9-10.5 |
| Aces | 3.3 | 5.2 |
| Double faults | 4.4 | 4.5 |
| 1st serve % | 67.7% | 71.9% |
| Break % | 61.3% | 40.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.4
H2H · Coco Gauff 3 – 0 Elise Mertens (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Coco Gauff 3–0 Elise Mertens
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/02/26 WTA Dubai | 2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 13/03/24 WTA Indian Wells | 2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 02/09/23 US Open Women | 2-1 | 15-9 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Coco Gauff
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10 | Xinran Sun WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 03/10 | Maria Camila Osorio WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 11/09 | Elena Rybakina US Open Women · Hard |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 09/09 | Mirra Andreeva US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 08/09 | Iva Jovic US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 05/09 | Cristina Bucsa US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 04/09 | Paula Badosa US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 02/09 | Zeynep Sonmez US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 24/08 | Jessica Pegula WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 23/08 | Sara Bejlek WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Elise Mertens
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10 | Jelena Ostapenko WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 03/10 | Katie Volynets WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 25/09 | Maja Chwalinska WTA Singapore · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 06/09 | Naomi Osaka US Open Women · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 03/09 | Maria Timofeeva US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 01/09 | Kaitlin Quevedo US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 30/08 | Diane Parry WTA Monterrey · Hard |
1-2 | 13-12 | L |
| 29/08 | Nikola Bartunkova WTA Monterrey · Hard |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 28/08 | Yulia Starodubtsewa WTA Monterrey · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 27/08 | Panna Udvardy WTA Monterrey · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Coco Gauff vs Elise Mertens?
Our model gives 72% to Coco Gauff, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.