Tennis · WTA Beijing · 06/10, 05:00
Prediction: Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka
Team pages: Karolina Muchova · Naomi Osaka
Prediction summary
Winner
Karolina Muchova
Naomi Osaka
Estimated games
22
Recent form · 10 last
Karolina Muchova
7-3 (W-L)
Naomi Osaka
9-1 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Karolina Muchova
3–3
Naomi Osaka
(6 last)
- 07 Jul2-0 13-10W
- 04 Sept0-2 10-13L
- 15 Jan1-2 10-13L
- 30 Aug2-0 13-9W
- 02 May2-1 15-11W
- 24 Aug1-2 13-18L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Karolina Muchova 1583 · Naomi Osaka 1583
| Karolina Muchova | Naomi Osaka | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 50% |
| Market | 57% | 43% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Naomi Osaka dominates on serve: 6.2 aces and 42.9% break avg.
Statistics
| Karolina Muchova | Naomi Osaka | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 86% (7) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.6 | 1.7-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.5-9.1 | 13.2-10.4 |
| Aces | 5.1 | 6.2 |
| Double faults | 1.3 | 3.1 |
| 1st serve % | 74.8% | 75.4% |
| Break % | 55% | 42.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22
H2H · Karolina Muchova 3 – 3 Naomi Osaka (6)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Karolina Muchova 3–3 Naomi Osaka
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07/26 Wimbledon Women | 2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 04/09/25 US Open Women | 0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 15/01/25 Australian Open Women | 1-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 30/08/24 US Open Women | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 02/05/21 WTA Madrid | 2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 24/08/20 WTA New York | 1-2 | 13-18 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Karolina Muchova
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | Ludmilla Samsonova WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 02/10 | Katie Boulter WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 27/09 | Anhelina Kalinina Billie Jean King Cup · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 25/09 | Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Billie Jean King Cup · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 04/09 | Emma Navarro US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 02/09 | Katie Boulter US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 31/08 | Sinja Kraus US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 11/07 | Linda Noskova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 09/07 | Coco Gauff Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 07/07 | Naomi Osaka Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Naomi Osaka
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | Sara Bejlek WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 02/10 | Maria Timofeeva WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 07/09 | Elena Rybakina US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 06/09 | Elise Mertens US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 03/09 | Katerina Siniakova US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 17-10 | W |
| 01/09 | Anastasia Zakharova US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 12/08 | Elena Rybakina WTA Toronto · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 10/08 | Leylah Annie Fernandez WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 08/08 | Elise Mertens WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 05/08 | Panna Udvardy WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka?
Our model gives 54% to Karolina Muchova, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.