Tennis · WTA Beijing · 05/10, 05:00
Prediction: Maria Sakkari vs Elina Svitolina
Team pages: Maria Sakkari · Elina Svitolina
Prediction summary
Winner
Maria Sakkari
Elina Svitolina
Estimated games
22.4
Recent form · 10 last
Maria Sakkari
7-3 (W-L)
Elina Svitolina
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Maria Sakkari
2–3
Elina Svitolina
(5 last)
- 29 Apr0-2 7-12L
- 27 Jul1-2 14-17L
- 21 Oct2-0 12-6W
- 02 Aug2-1 14-15W
- 05 Jul1-2 12-18L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Maria Sakkari 1532 · Elina Svitolina 1546
| Maria Sakkari | Elina Svitolina | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 52% |
| Market | 30% | 70% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Maria Sakkari 2–3 Elina Svitolina (5).
Statistics
| Maria Sakkari | Elina Svitolina | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1 | 1.5-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.7-10.1 | 13.4-11.1 |
| Aces | 4.6 | 3.4 |
| Double faults | 3.4 | 3.5 |
| 1st serve % | 66% | 69.6% |
| Break % | 46.1% | 59.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.4
H2H · Maria Sakkari 2 – 3 Elina Svitolina (5)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Maria Sakkari 2–3 Elina Svitolina
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/04/25 WTA Madrid | 0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 27/07/21 Olympics 2020 - Women | 1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 21/10/20 WTA Ostrava | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 02/08/19 WTA San Jose | 2-1 | 14-15 | W |
| 05/07/19 Wimbledon Women | 1-2 | 12-18 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Maria Sakkari
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10 | Storm Hunter WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 25/09 | Talia Gibson WTA Singapore · Hard |
1-2 | 9-16 | L |
| 24/09 | Nao Hibino WTA Singapore · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 22/09 | Linda Fruhvirtova WTA Singapore · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 04/09 | Yulia Starodubtsewa US Open Women · Hard |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 01/09 | Robin Montgomery US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 17/08 | Iga Swiatek WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 8-16 | L |
| 15/08 | Kamilla Rakhimova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-10 | W |
| 08/08 | Coco Gauff WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 05/08 | Zeynep Sonmez WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Elina Svitolina
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10 | Katerina Siniakova WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 27/09 | Linda Noskova Billie Jean King Cup · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 26/09 | Jasmine Paolini Billie Jean King Cup · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 24/09 | Greet Minnen Billie Jean King Cup · Hard |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 05/09 | Anna Kalinskaya US Open Women · Hard |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 03/09 | Maya Joint US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 31/08 | Solana Sierra US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 17/08 | Tereza Valentova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 13/08 | Iga Swiatek WTA Toronto · Hard |
1-2 | 12-13 | L |
| 11/08 | Ekaterina Alexandrova WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Maria Sakkari vs Elina Svitolina?
Our model gives 62% to Elina Svitolina, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.