Tennis · ATP Beijing · 04/10, 10:30
Prediction: Daniil Medvedev vs Francisco Cerundolo
Team pages: Daniil Medvedev · Francisco Cerundolo
Prediction summary
Winner
Daniil Medvedev
Francisco Cerundolo
Estimated games
26Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Daniil Medvedev
9-1 (W-L)
Francisco Cerundolo
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Daniil Medvedev
0–1
Francisco Cerundolo
(1 last)
- 23 Mar1-2 11-17L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Daniil Medvedev 1611 · Francisco Cerundolo 1555
| Daniil Medvedev | Francisco Cerundolo | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 70% | 30% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Daniil Medvedev (rating 1611 vs 1555).
- Daniil Medvedev dominates on serve: 13.4 aces and 42.8% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Daniil Medvedev 0–1 Francisco Cerundolo (1).
- Note: Francisco Cerundolo makes many double faults (4.7/match).
Statistics
| Daniil Medvedev | Francisco Cerundolo | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 90% (10) | 63% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 2.1-0.4 | 1.9-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 15.2-10.4 | 17.1-14.1 |
| Aces | 13.4 | 5.7 |
| Double faults | 3.4 | 4.7 |
| 1st serve % | 82.8% | 76.3% |
| Break % | 42.8% | 36.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
26 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +3.5
Over 22.5: 73% · 1.90
Under 22.5: 27% · 1.80
H2H · Daniil Medvedev 0 – 1 Francisco Cerundolo (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Daniil Medvedev 0–1 Francisco Cerundolo
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/03/26 ATP Miami | 1-2 | 11-17 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Daniil Medvedev
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10 | Jan-Lennard Struff ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 02/10 | Pablo Carreno Busta ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 29/09 | Andrey Rublev ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 28/09 | Roman Safiullin ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 27/09 | Coleman Wong ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 26/09 | Valentin Royer ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 06/09 | Frances Tiafoe US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 16-20 | L |
| 04/09 | Arthur Rinderknech US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-12 | W |
| 02/09 | Sebastian Gorzny US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 19-9 | W |
| 30/08 | Hugo Gaston US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-10 | W |
Francisco Cerundolo
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10 | Jakub Mensik ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 01/10 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 25/09 | Casper Ruud Laver Cup · Hard |
1-2 | 19-22 | L |
| 20/09 | Mert Alkaya Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 19/09 | Yanki Erel Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 07/09 | Alexander Blockx US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 19-24 | L |
| 05/09 | Taylor Fritz US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 25-23 | W |
| 03/09 | Jan-Lennard Struff US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 28-23 | W |
| 01/09 | Filip Misolic US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 19-12 | W |
| 16/08 | Nuno Borges ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Daniil Medvedev vs Francisco Cerundolo?
Our model gives 65% to Daniil Medvedev, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.