Tennis · ATP Beijing · 04/10, 05:00
Prediction: Hubert Hurkacz vs Karen Khachanov
Team pages: Hubert Hurkacz · Karen Khachanov
Prediction summary
Winner
Hubert Hurkacz
Karen Khachanov
Estimated games
26Bet365 line 25.5
Recent form · 10 last
Hubert Hurkacz
4-6 (W-L)
Karen Khachanov
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Hubert Hurkacz
0–2
Karen Khachanov
(2 last)
- 06 Jun0-2 7-11L
- 21 Oct0-2 10-13L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hubert Hurkacz 1606 · Karen Khachanov 1547
| Hubert Hurkacz | Karen Khachanov | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 43% | 57% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hubert Hurkacz (rating 1606 vs 1547).
- Hubert Hurkacz dominates on serve: 13.3 aces and 52.3% break avg.
- Karen Khachanov dominates on serve: 7.9 aces and 52.2% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Hubert Hurkacz 0–2 Karen Khachanov (2).
Statistics
| Hubert Hurkacz | Karen Khachanov | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (10) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-1.1 | 1.7-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 16.5-13.3 | 16.1-12.7 |
| Aces | 13.3 | 7.9 |
| Double faults | 3.3 | 3.4 |
| 1st serve % | 76.7% | 78.8% |
| Break % | 52.3% | 52.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
26 · Bet365 line 25.5 · +0.5
Over 25.5: 53% · 1.83
Under 25.5: 47% · 1.83
H2H · Hubert Hurkacz 0 – 2 Karen Khachanov (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Hubert Hurkacz 0–2 Karen Khachanov
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/06/25 Bonmont Tennis Masters | 0-2 | 7-11 | L |
| 21/10/19 ATP Vienna | 0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hubert Hurkacz
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/10 | Arthur Gea ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 01/10 | Learner Tien ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 29/09 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 28/09 | Denis Shapovalov ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 27/09 | Lloyd Harris ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 26/09 | Martin Damm ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 24/09 | Alexander Shevchenko ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 02/09 | Ben Shelton US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 21-25 | L |
| 31/08 | Damir Dzumhur US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 22-12 | W |
| 24/08 | Sebastian Baez Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
Karen Khachanov
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/10 | Alex Molcan ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 30/09 | Felix Auger Aliassime ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 11/09 | Alexander Zverev US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 15-20 | L |
| 07/09 | Learner Tien US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 29-23 | W |
| 05/09 | Benjamin Bonzi US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-9 | W |
| 03/09 | Felix Auger Aliassime US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 24-14 | W |
| 31/08 | Roman Andres Burruchaga US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-4 | W |
| 15/08 | Aleksandar Kovacevic ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 06/08 | Terence Atmane ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 30/07 | Bernard Tomic ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hubert Hurkacz vs Karen Khachanov?
Our model gives 50% to Hubert Hurkacz, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.