Tennis · ATP Beijing · 03/10, 05:00
Prediction: Francisco Cerundolo vs Jakub Mensik
Team pages: Francisco Cerundolo · Jakub Mensik
Prediction summary
Winner
Francisco Cerundolo
Jakub Mensik
Estimated games
27.4Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Francisco Cerundolo
4-6 (W-L)
Jakub Mensik
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Francisco Cerundolo
2–0
Jakub Mensik
(2 last)
- 01 May2-1 16-14W
- 27 Sept2-0 13-7W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Francisco Cerundolo 1517 · Jakub Mensik 1535
| Francisco Cerundolo | Jakub Mensik | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 53% |
| Market | 38% | 62% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Francisco Cerundolo 2–0 Jakub Mensik (2).
- Note: Francisco Cerundolo makes many double faults (4.7/match).
- Note: Jakub Mensik makes many double faults (4.1/match).
Statistics
| Francisco Cerundolo | Jakub Mensik | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (8) | 63% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-1.4 | 1.8-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 16.6-14.7 | 15.6-14.5 |
| Aces | 6.3 | 11.8 |
| Double faults | 4.7 | 4.1 |
| 1st serve % | 76.4% | 77.8% |
| Break % | 33.2% | 37.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
27.4 · Bet365 line 23.5 · +3.9
Over 23.5: 75% · 1.90
Under 23.5: 25% · 1.80
H2H · Francisco Cerundolo 2 – 0 Jakub Mensik (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Francisco Cerundolo 2–0 Jakub Mensik
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/05/25 ATP Madrid | 2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 27/09/24 ATP Beijing | 2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Francisco Cerundolo
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 25/09 | Casper Ruud Laver Cup · Hard |
1-2 | 19-22 | L |
| 20/09 | Mert Alkaya Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 19/09 | Yanki Erel Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 07/09 | Alexander Blockx US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 19-24 | L |
| 05/09 | Taylor Fritz US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 25-23 | W |
| 03/09 | Jan-Lennard Struff US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 28-23 | W |
| 01/09 | Filip Misolic US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 19-12 | W |
| 16/08 | Nuno Borges ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 05/08 | Alex Michelsen ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Jakub Mensik
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10 | Alexander Bublik ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 25/09 | Brandon Nakashima Laver Cup · Hard |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 19/09 | Ben Shelton Davis Cup |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 18/09 | Learner Tien Davis Cup |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 06/09 | Learner Tien US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 23-25 | L |
| 03/09 | Jurij Rodionov US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 21-14 | W |
| 01/09 | Shintaro Mochizuki US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 19-10 | W |
| 19/08 | Thiago Agustin Tirante ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 18/08 | Rinky Hijikata ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 15/08 | Mattia Bellucci ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 16-17 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Francisco Cerundolo vs Jakub Mensik?
Our model gives 58% to Jakub Mensik, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.