Tennis · ATP Beijing · 04/10, 13:00
Prediction: Alexander Zverev vs Novak Djokovic
Team pages: Alexander Zverev · Novak Djokovic
Prediction summary
Winner
Alexander Zverev
Novak Djokovic
Estimated games
28.4Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Alexander Zverev
10-0 (W-L)
Novak Djokovic
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alexander Zverev
3–6
Novak Djokovic
(9 last)
- 04 Jun1-3 15-22L
- 20 Aug0-2 11-14L
- 20 Dec2-0 12-7W
- 20 Nov2-1 17-15W
- 11 Sept2-3 20-26L
- 30 Jul2-1 13-10W
- 16 Feb1-3 19-25L
- 05 Feb1-2 14-19L
Showing the 8 with a final score we have.
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alexander Zverev 1612 · Novak Djokovic 1536
| Alexander Zverev | Novak Djokovic | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 39% |
| Market | 73% | 27% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alexander Zverev (rating 1612 vs 1536).
- Alexander Zverev dominates on serve: 10 aces and 46.6% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Alexander Zverev 3–6 Novak Djokovic (9).
Statistics
| Alexander Zverev | Novak Djokovic | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 88% (8) | 50% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 2.3-0.3 | 2.2-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 16.6-10.9 | 19.1-17.8 |
| Aces | 10 | 11.2 |
| Double faults | 3.2 | 3.6 |
| 1st serve % | 80.2% | 75.5% |
| Break % | 46.6% | 39.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
28.4 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +5.9
Over 22.5: 85% · 1.80
Under 22.5: 15% · 1.90
H2H · Alexander Zverev 3 – 6 Novak Djokovic (9)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alexander Zverev 3–6 Novak Djokovic
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/06/25 French Open | 1-3 | 15-22 | L |
| 20/08/23 ATP Cincinnati | 0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 20/12/22 World Tennis League | 2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 20/11/21 ATP World Tour Finals | 2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 11/09/21 US Open | 2-3 | 20-26 | L |
| 30/07/21 Olympics 2020 - Men | 2-1 | 13-10 | W |
| 16/02/21 Australian Open | 1-3 | 19-25 | L |
| 05/02/21 ATP Cup | 1-2 | 14-19 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alexander Zverev
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10 | Juncheng Shang ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 01/10 | Cameron Norrie ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 27/09 | Learner Tien Laver Cup · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 26/09 | Alex De Minaur Laver Cup · Hard |
1-2 | 21-20 | L |
| 20/09 | Dino Prizmic Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 19/09 | Matej Dodig Davis Cup |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 13/09 | Ben Shelton US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 24-18 | W |
| 11/09 | Karen Khachanov US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 20-15 | W |
| 10/09 | Botic Van De Zandschulp US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 19-8 | W |
| 08/09 | Luciano Darderi US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 19-10 | W |
Novak Djokovic
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/10 | Bu Yunchaokete ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 30/09 | Nuno Borges ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 31/08 | Mariano Navone US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 22-28 | L |
| 15/08 | Thiago Agustin Tirante ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 10/07 | Jannik Sinner Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 12-18 | L |
| 07/07 | Felix Auger Aliassime Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 29-28 | W |
| 05/07 | Roman Safiullin Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 22-18 | W |
| 03/07 | Arthur Rinderknech Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 21-21 | W |
| 01/07 | Stefanos Tsitsipas Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-9 | W |
| 29/06 | Yibing Wu Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 23-19 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alexander Zverev vs Novak Djokovic?
Our model gives 67% to Alexander Zverev, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.